Latest US election poll suggests a decisive Barack Obama win

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Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Barack Obama is comfortably leading Mitt Romney in two key election states. Photo: REUTERS/Larry Downing

Boston, we have a problem. A big problem with 42 days to go.

Until today, the Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney could persuade himself he had a route to victory. Three great performances in the Presidential debates and alarming unemployment figures next month and the race could just turn in his favour.

But the latest polling suggests that President Obama will win - and decisively so. When the Boston-based Romney strategists opened the New York Times this morning, they must have choked on their Cheerios.

Two states matter more than any others. And in both, Romney is being crushed. In Ohio, Obama is up by 10%. In Florida, the President is winning by 9%. (These numbers come from a just-released NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac poll).

If Romney loses Ohio and Florida, he is finished. Toast. And he will have many years to ponder how the wheels came off his campaign. One big culprit: the secret video of him dismissing 47% of Americans as "victims" and dependent on government. It was devastating because the video reinforced the Obama narrative that Romney is a rich man who cannot relate to the struggles or aspirations of others.

Dig deeper into the poll numbers and President Obama's momentum is achieved due to improved performance among women, white and retired voters.

There is one more statistic that is truly alarming for Romney: the election isn't really 42 days away. It's now. In 26 states, early voting is already underway.