The UK Independence Party has recorded its highest ever vote share on 19%, in a ComRes poll for today's The Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror.
Labour, are on 35 per cent, and have the lowest vote share in a ComRes poll since October 2010 - its lead has fallen to six points.
Change since the last ComRes online poll in mid-April:
- Con 29% (-1)
- Lab 35% (-3)
- UKIP 19% (+4)
- Lib Dem 8% (0)
- Others 9% (0)
The Martin Baxter calculator, now refined to account for UKIP, suggests that Labour would win a majority of 74 seats (although UKIP would win none).
The ComRes's UKIP vote share in the recent local elections was within 0.7 points of the result
David Cameron's personal rating has fallen to a record low (26% say he is a good prime minister) while Ed Miliband's has risen to its highest level recorded by ComRes (31% say he is a good leader of the Labour Party).
By a margin of 46% to 24% people say they would vote to leave the EU in a referendum, but "if some EU powers are restored to the UK" the figures are almost reversed: 24% would vote to leave and 43% would vote to stay.
When asked who would be the best Prime Minister the results were as follows:
- David Cameron 32%
- Ed Miliband 24%
- Nick Clegg 6%
- Don’t know 38%
Of UKIP supporters, 29% say David Cameron would make the best prime minister, 6% Ed Miliband, 3% Nick Clegg and 62% don't know.