It seems we are emerging from this recession in an exceptionally grumpy mood

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File photo of coins and notes.
Mark Carney said you no longer have to be an optimist to see that the glass is half full when it comes to the economic recovery. Photo: Lynne Cameron/PA Wire

The Tories - and indeed the Lib Dems - could be forgiven for cracking open tonight whatever it is they are allowed to indulge themselves with at moments of celebration these days.

The Governor of the Bank of England says you no longer have to be an optimist to see that the glass is half full and economic recovery is firmly under way.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney speaking in London today Credit: ITV News

Growth forecasts have been upgraded and there is every reason to suggest that, after such a long recession, they might be upgraded again.

The Bank certainly seems unlikely to rush to raise interest rates at a time when levels of private indebtedness still run so high.

And, for the coalition parties, it is all happening at exactly the right moment, with just enough time for this to comfortably feed through to people's pockets by the election in 2015

But, unfortunately for Mr Cameron and his colleagues, nothing is that simple this time around.

I am not sure I would go as far as to say that we are in a new paradigm, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest we are emerging from this recession in an exceptionally grumpy mood.

Energy prices are shooting up, so are food prices, rail prices and an awful lot else besides.

The only thing that isn't going up is our wages - and, unfortunately for the Government, it is very hard to see that changing rapidly, and possibly not at all before 2015.

If the question is who to best to oversee continued recovery, the Tories will probably win.

If it turns into a war to see how the proceeds of that recovery are redistributed, then Labour may well prove to be in the driving seat.

The situation, it seems to me, remains exceptionally fluid.