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Police and prison officer pay to rise by more than 1% but less than 2%

Police and prison officer pay is going up - by between one and two per cent.

On Tuesday or Wednesday (ministers making up minds) a strong signal will be sent that the 1% public sector pay cap is dead.

Because the government will announce that the pay of police and prison officers will increase more than that hated, below-inflation 1%.

But we are not talking about a bonanza for cops and prison officers: both will receive less than 2%.

The government, probably in the shape of the chief secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss, is expected to announce that ministers have accepted recommendations of the two services' pay review bodies that 1% is not appropriate for them.

However there is a sting.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss. Credit: PA

As of now, no new money will be found for the prison and police services to fund the pay rises, which brings the risk of them having to make cuts elsewhere - and that will be controversial.

Even so, ministers are not hosing down the suggestion that with prison and police staff getting more than 1% this year, it will be impossible to limit pay rises to 1% next year for the rest of the public sector.

The big questions, which won't be answered till the budget in November, is what size of pay rise the Treasury is prepared to finance next year - and therefore what level of pay increase it recommends as the public-sector benchmark for all the review bodies.