Heavy rain and strong winds are on their way in again tonight. A weather warning for heavy rain is in force from midnight tonight until midday Monday - details below - but we don't think that New Year will be a total washout.
Throughout Sunday, a weak ridge of high pressure from the west is crossing today, keeping things mainly dry with decent sunny spells. Just an odd shower possible into the afternoon. It will be fairly breezy further west and this could give our temperatures of 6-7c a chilly edge. Lighter winds further east.
Later on Sunday afternoon we start to see the first sign of cloud in the west ahead of the next system.
Initially on Sunday evening, temperatures fall away ahead of the cloud and rain to give a local ground frost through the east of the region, lows around 2c.
This is the time we expect our minimum night-time lows; temperatures actually rise throughout the night and will reach 5-6c during the early hours.
By midnight, heavy rain pushes into the Isle of Man before sweeping across the whole of the Border region.
The rain will be heavier in the west than the east, heaviest through Dumfries and Galloway where in excess of 60mm is possible by Monday morning as the worst case scenario, 40mm or so likely across Cumbria.
Winds increase also, gusts of 50-60mph through the Irish Sea. Further east, gusts of 30-40mph.
Local flooding is a possibility and there are concerns about the River Tay. Do visit the Environment Agency website if you are worried about flooding in your area.
The rain pushes away towards the back end of the night.
As the rain pushes away eastwards, the region starts to brighten from the west on Monday morning. Just an odd shower remaining.
As the rain clears away, the winds are at their strongest, gusts 60mph in the west, 70mph in more exposed spots.
On Monday afternoon it's 'all change'. The rain should be right away into the North Sea by now, odd shower over the Pennines, but for the western side of the Border region it's unbroken sunshine. Further east, sunny breaks.
Winds ease compared to the morning period, but they remain blustery, gusts 35-40mph.
Highest temperatures on Monday will be in the morning around 8-10c. Later as the weather becomes clearer and brighter they drop away to 6-8c and the breeze will be fresh.
TUESDAY - NEW YEAR'S EVE
Rain pushes in to the west during the morning, followed by showers later. 8c 46f.
Chilly overnight on Tuesday, touch of frost but nothing widespread as it will be too breezy. Odd shower. 3c
WEDNESDAY - NEW YEAR'S DAY
More rain ploughs in. Blowy. 7c 45f.
Bright and breezy, odd shower. Brighter than Monday and Tuesday, quite fine, tops 7-9c.