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  1. ITV Report

Weather: What will winter bring?

Looking ahead Photo: Stewart Cunningham

Long-range forecasts are never an exact science.

The predictions are more like the odds for a horse race – sometimes the favourite does not win.

Credit: Mick Heward

This winter the Met Office say the most likely scenario is for a normal start to the season, but the risk of a cold start has increased over recent days.

The forecasters also say the current trend suggests an “increased risk of cold snaps between now and Christmas”.

Credit: Raymond Wilkinson

Historical weather observations and our latest computer model simulations agree that these factors are increasing the risk of a cold start to winter for the UK, but this is unlikely to persist through winter as a whole.

– PROFESSOR ADAM SCAIFE (Met Office)

Although it is probably not worth a betting your house on the success of long range forecasts is getting better.

Last winter the mild, wet and stormy December and drier, cooler end to winter was picked up more than a month ahead.

As always the reliability of weather forecasts increases nearer the time