Long-range forecasts are never an exact science.
The predictions are more like the odds for a horse race – sometimes the favourite does not win.
This winter the Met Office say the most likely scenario is for a normal start to the season, but the risk of a cold start has increased over recent days.
The forecasters also say the current trend suggests an “increased risk of cold snaps between now and Christmas”.
Although it is probably not worth a betting your house on the success of long range forecasts is getting better.
Last winter the mild, wet and stormy December and drier, cooler end to winter was picked up more than a month ahead.
As always the reliability of weather forecasts increases nearer the time