We meteorologists forecast the weather with the help of computer models which try to second guess how the global atmosphere will behave in the coming days and weeks. The Met Office computer model is recognised as a world leader in weather forecasting but other meteorological services around the world, notably American, German, French and Japanese etc each have their own weather forecasting computer models. When all these models agree on the expected behaviour of the atmosphere it gives us confidence in the forecast but when they all disagree and produce different outcomes it presents us with something of a headache and lowers our confidence in the forecast.
The expected track of ex-hurricane Bertha on Sunday and how it affects us is, unfortunately a case in point with many different model solutions.
At the moment southern parts of the UK look as though they are most at risk. However, there is also the possibility that the storm could move across northern France as a weak feature but there is also a risk of a more intense development and affecting the UK more widely.
The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the western side of the Atlantic will come steadily towards the UK during the next two days.
As things stand at the moment (Friday lunchtime) there are some heavy downpours around today and these will continue this afternoon and this evening giving some thunder and potentially some localised flooding. The Met Office have a yellow warning out to that effect for northern England.
Saturday will be a pleasantly fine day; dry with sunny spells but on Sunday 'Bertha' will bring a much wetter day with frequent heavy showers and potentially strong winds. The outlook for next week is showery, windy and cool.
Stay up to date with the latest forecast here over the weekend.