1. ITV Report

University of Wolverhampton predicts Team GB could win 45 medals at the Rio de Janeiro Olympic games in 2016

Team GB's London 2012 medal winners Photo: PA Pictures

Rio de Jeniro could prove to be another medal winning Olympic Games for Team GB, researches have predicted.

Scientists, based at the University of Wolverhampton, have used a mathematical formula based on the average number of medals Britain has won in the past and the likelihood of podium success of host and post-host countries.

Professor Alan Nevill writes out the formula he used Credit: ITV Central

The authors findings, published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, predict that a host nation's odds of winning medals will be more than double.

The model suggests that having the home advantage should bring in 2.05 medals for every single medal usually won.

Britain's historic medal average is 31, when that was multiplied by 2.05 it produced a predicted medal win of 63.5 for London 2012. In the end, Team GB earned 65 medals.

"This of course assumes that history will repeat itself and that the drop-off in medals won, seen with other hosting nations, will be mirrored by Team GB in Rio."

– Professor Alan Nevill, University of Wolverhampton
The formula used to predict the medal win Credit: ITV Central

The model is created from the medal tallies of all countries that have hosted the Games since World War II.

Logit regression, as the approach is known, looks at medals won before, during and after a nation has hosted the games.

The researchers also found that objective and subjectively judged sports had different outcomes.

They found that more medals were gained in subjectively judge sports than they were in objectively judged ones.

"Anecdotal evidence suggests that the crowd had a positive effect on athletes, but also, crowds appear to have had an important effect on influencing officials to favour the home based performers."

– Professor Alan Nevill, University of Wolverhampton

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