The Tories are set for defeat in the Corby-by-election according to a new poll by a former deputy party chairman.
The poll by Lord Ashcroft found that Labour had risen to a 22-point lead because voters want 'to punish David Cameron's Government'.
Retaking the seat by the projected 54% to 32% margin would represent a 13-point swing back to Labour, enough for a significant overall Commons majority if repeated at the general election.
But the latest survey of 1,503 voters in the constituency suggested there was hope for the Tories to turn things around by 2015 as Labour remains untrusted to run the economy.
The date for the Corby by-election has been announced as November 15th.
The by-election was forced by the decision of Louise Mensch, who secured a 1,951 majority in 2010 to quit the Commons and move to the US with her family.