The newspapers may be going for a 'red hot October' and there might be some warm weather in the longer range forecast - but not in the immediate future!
There is the scope for some sun for most of us over the next couple of weeks, but on the whole the weather will be rather changeable. More unsettled the further N and W you are.
We have been spoilt by above average temperatures so far this month, but by Thursday they'll be a few degrees below average, that's a drop of 6-7 degrees from Monday. It will feel significantly colder.
High pressure to the south swaps places with low pressure to the NW and changes the wind direction from a mild, moist SW'erly to a bitterly cold northerly. The high to the south slips up the western side of the UK over the next few days, and the low sinks into the North Sea.
So after a warm feeling Monday, Monday night sees a cold front pushing in from the NW and slowly sinking SE'wards. This will reach all parts, with more persistent rain and heavier bursts, especially over hills.
As the rain continues its journey the system weakens and it should not reach the extreme SE of the region until the end of the night. It will be fresh and breezy overnight, but with above average temperatures once again.
A little rain still lingers in the far south of the region between 6 and 8am on Tuesday morning. It should be away by 9-10am. Turning drier afterwards with bright spells, winds from the west so scope for a spit or spot in the wind, especially across Lancashire and Cumbria.
Throughout Tuesday afternoon, mostly dry, bright for most, some sun at times. Winds ease, but temperatures still hold up well, 16-17c, sea temperatures 15-16c. Feeling fairly warm in any sunshine with a few brighter spells across the Isle of Man. Odd light shower in the SW of the ITV Granada region.
Tuesday night's temperatures of 11c slide to 5-6c on Wednesday and Thursday night.
On Wednesday, a second cold front pulls in so a dry start but then more light, patchy rain sinking southwards. This front will also introduce much colder air and a fair amount of cloud, but yet again, the rain on it lessening as it continues it's journey.
Thursday, more energy is created round the coasts with a few showers for these areas, but drier inland. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds, feeling cold, the wind chill making 12-14c feel like 8-9c.
On Friday, we lose the coastal showers. We have more of a NE'erly feed and this pushes any showers further inland on the keen winds. Brighter the further west you are. A chilly few days with most showers drying up by weekend, but it will feel chilly with possibly some grass frost in the forecast for the weekend.