The research into the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito shows that parts of the UK could become hot-spots between 2030 and 2050.
The mosquito has been introduced into Europe from Asia via goods shipments, mainly used tyres and bamboo.
Climate change is now shifting conditions suitable for the insect from southern Europe to central north-western areas.
The mosquito could survive in water butts and vases, and may find winter protection in greenhouses, said the researchers.
Scientists used climate models to predict how changing conditions could affect Asian tiger mosquito distribution.
Theresearch shows that parts of the UK could become hot-spots of Asian tiger mosquito activity between 2030 and 2050.
A mosquito that spreads tropical diseases including dengue fever may be poised to invade the UK because of climate change, experts have warned.
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has already been reported in France and Belgium and could be migrating north as winters become warmer and wetter.