Just had my ear bent by Labour - they reckon their majority in South Shields will be halved to 5,000.
Though that would roughly maintain the same share of the vote won by David Miliband in 2010.
More top news
The Queen was in reflective mood this Christmas, choosing reconciliation as her theme and taking a quite direct personal approach.
Quickly turning cold this evening with a widespread frost developing under clear skies, some fog patches too.
The Queen says she is "deeply touched" by the "selflessness" of medical staff fighting the Ebola outbreak in her annual Christmas speech.