Just had my ear bent by Labour - they reckon their majority in South Shields will be halved to 5,000.
Though that would roughly maintain the same share of the vote won by David Miliband in 2010.
More top news
Wintry scenes across the UK this late in April have not been seen since the mid-1980s.
A switch in the wind direction will mean the unseasonably bitterly cold air of the last few days finally gives way.