If today's inflation figures exceed 3%, they will continue to erode consumers' spending power and savings and significantly outstrip wage rises, which increased by just 1.3% in the three months to April compared with a year earlier.
Inflation last hit 3% in April 2012 and has remained stuck above the Bank's 2% target since December 2009.
Figures from the British Retail Consortium recently showed food price inflation rose to 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May, as seasonal price pressures bled through to higher shelf prices.
However, prices of non-food items fell 1.9% in June from 1.5% a month earlier.
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It will be increasingly humid and thundery with highs of 30C or more today.
Holidaymakers in Tunisia are determined not to be beaten. But, as Neil Connery writes, it won't be easy to escape the shock of the massacre.
Drink lots of water, stay out of the sun during the middle of the day, and take particular care of vulnerable people.