Poll: Tories still on course to win Newark by-election

David Cameron and Boris Johnson at Newark train station after campaigning on Thursday. Credit: PA

The Tories are still on track to win the Newark by-election despite a massive Ukip surge, according to a poll.

Research by Survation for The Sun put the Conservatives on 36% in the constituency, ahead of Nigel Farage's party on 28% and Labour on 27%.

But Tory backing is down by 18 percentage points since the 2010 general election, when disgraced former MP Patrick Mercer secured a 16,000 majority.

Meanwhile, Ukip support has soared by 24 percentage points and Labour has gone up by four.

The findings raise the prospect of a nailbiting last week of the campaign, with Mr Farage and his party trying to build on major gains in local and European elections to secure a Commons seat for first time.