Poll shows Labour could get Senedd majority

Seat projection
How analysis of today's poll suggests the Senedd would look Photo: ITV News Cymru Wales

An ITV Cymru Wales poll for tonight's Sharp End shows a swing from Conservative to Labour in Assembly constituencies compared with the last Assembly election. But the figures show a great willingness, at least at this distance from the election, to cast constituency votes and regional list votes differently. A quarter of Conservative constituency voters would switch to UKIP with their list votes. Similarly, a quarter of Labour constituency voters switch to Plaid Cymru, as do a third of Lib Dem constituency voters.

  • Assembly Constituency Vote ** (compared with 2011 election)**
  • Labour 46% (+4%)********
  • *********************Conservative 21% (-4%)*
  • Plaid Cymru 17% (-2%)********
  • *********************Lib Dems 10% (-1%)*
  • UKIP 5% (+5%)********
  • *********************Others 2% (-1%)*
  • Assembly Regional Vote (compared with 2011 election)
  • Labour 26% (-11%)********
  • *********************Plaid Cymru 26% (+8%)*
  • Conservative 14% (-9%)********
  • *********************UKIP 13% (+8%)*
  • Lib Dems 11% (+3%)
  • Others 11% (+2%)**

Polling analyst Dr Denis Balsom of the Wales Yearbook has looked at how these voting patterns would translate into seats in the Senedd. Here's his estimate:

  • Labour 31 (+1)
  • Plaid Cymru 13 (+2)
  • Conservative 7 (-7)
  • UKIP 5 (+5)
  • Lib Dems 4 (-1)

But it's not all good news for UKIP. There's big a shift since the last European election in how people say they'll vote next year. It means Labour would easily take UKIP's seat and narrowly take Plaid Cymru's, so there would be 3 Labour MEPs and one Conservative.

  • European Election (compared with 2009 election)********
  • *********************Labour 44% (+24%)*
  • Conservative 23% (+2%)
  • Plaid Cymru 14% (-5%)******
  • *********UKIP 9% (-4%)*****
  • *********************Lib Dem 7% (-4%)*
  • Others 3% (-14%)

A poll results published earlier today also showed that if a referendum on staying in the European Union was held today, there would be a majority in Wales for keeping Britain in the EU.

  • EU Referendum********
  • *********************Yes 42%*
  • No 35%********
  • *********************Don't Know/Won't Vote 22% *

There's also a big swing to Labour compared with the last Westminster election.

  • Westminster Election (compared with 2010 election)********
  • *********************Labour 51% (+15%)*
  • Conservative 22% (-4%)********
  • *********************Plaid Cymru 10% (-1%) *
  • Lib Dem 9% (-11%)
  • UKIP 7% (+5%)**
  • Others 2% (-2%)

YouGov polled a representative sample of 1007 individuals across Wales, 18-20 February.