Poll's pointers for European election and beyond

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Welsh voters choose four MEPs on May 22 Photo: PA

The latest YouGov poll of Welsh voters suggests that Labour will gain a seat at the expense of Plaid Cymru in next month's European election, with UKIP also polling strongly. The poll also suggests that UKIP would gain seats in the Senedd for the first time if Wales was choosing AMs next month, with Labour losing a crucial seat and the Lib Dems more than halved.

The poll was carried out for Cardiff and Edinburgh Universities and the Institute for Public Policy Research. Here are the results for the European election, with the changes from the last YouGov poll in February in brackets.

  • Labour: 39% (no change)
  • UKIP: 20% (+2)
  • Conservative: 18% (+1)
  • Plaid Cymru: 11% (-1)
  • Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
  • Others: 6% (-1)

Turnout has always been low in European elections and the actual result will be affected by the parties' ability to get their supporters to the polling stations or to cast postal ballots in advance. However, it seems certain that we are heading for a very different result from five years ago, when the Conservatives topped the poll with Labour and Plaid Cymru close behind and UKIP gained a Welsh seat for the first time.

UKIP's growth in support would also give the party a breakthrough in an Assembly election, though of course much can happen between now and 2016, when a new Senedd will be chosen. The poll gives the following result for the election of constituency AMs.

  • Labour: 41% (-1)
  • Conservative: 21% (no change)
  • Plaid Cymru: 20% (+1)
  • Lib Dems: 8% (-1)
  • UKIP: 7% (+2)
  • Others: 2% (-1)

And the following result for the election of regional list AMs.

  • Labour: 37% (-2)
  • Conservative: 21% (+2)
  • Plaid Cymru: 19% (+2)
  • UKIP: 10% (no change)
  • Lib Dems: 7% (-2)
  • Others: 2% (-1)

If the same swing in support was seen in all parts of Wales, Prof Roger Scully of Cardiff University has looked at how it would change the seats held by each party in the Senedd, compared to what actually happened in 2011.

  • Labour 29 seats (-1)
  • Conservatives 13 seats (-1)
  • Plaid Cymru 11 (no change)
  • UKIP 5 (+5)
  • Lib Dems 2 (-3)

Finally, here's the voting intention for a Westminster election, with the changes since the YouGov poll in February.

  • Labour: 45% (-2)
  • Conservative: 24% (+2)
  • Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change)
  • UKIP: 10% (+1)
  • Lib Dems: 7% (no change)
  • Others: 3% (-1)

Prof Scully has also taken a look at how Welsh seats would change hands campared to the 2010 General Election result.

  • Labour 31 (+5)
  • Conservatives 6 (-2)
  • Plaid Cymru 2 (-1)
  • Lib Dems 1 (-2)

Prof Scully explains which seats would change hands in his blog http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/04/24/a-new-voting-intention-poll-in-wales/

Polling was carried out 11-22 April, the sample was 1027.