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Welsh Barometer poll points to six party Senedd

The latest Welsh Barometer poll suggests that if the next Assembly election was held this week, Labour would get 29 of the 60 seats. That's one fewer than at present and two short of an overall majority. A total of six parties would be represented in the Senedd.

In terms of how people would vote, there's been a drift towards the biggest parties since the last poll in January. Labour and the Conservatives were the beneficiaries in the Westminster poll, published last night. In the Assembly, it's those two parties plus Plaid Cymru.

Everyone gets two votes in an Assembly election, one for a constituency AM, the other for a party regional list. These are the constituency figures, with the change since January in brackets:

  • Labour 37% (+3%)
  • Conservative 22% (+1%)
  • Plaid Cymru 20% (+2%)
  • UKIP 11% (-2%)
  • Lib Dem 6% (-1%)
  • Green 4% (-2%)
  • Others 1% (no change)

The regional list figures show similar trends, though with a noticeable increase in support for Plaid Cymru and drop in support for UKIP.

  • Labour 33% (+1%)
  • Conservative 22% (+2%)
  • Plaid Cymru 21% (+6%)
  • UKIP 12% (-4%)
  • Lib Dem 5% (-3%)
  • Green 5% (-3%)
  • Others 2% (no change)

Prof Roger Scully has analysed how these figures would translate into seats in the Senedd, on an even swing across Wales. Four party politics would become six, though the Lib Dems and Greens would only just make it to Cardiff Bay.

  • Labour 29 seats
  • Conservatives 13 seats
  • Plaid Cymru 11 seats
  • UKIP 5 seats
  • Liberal Democrats 1 seat
  • Greens 1 seat

The list voting system would deliver representation to UKIP and the Greens for the first time but it would be the majority built up by Kirsty Williams in Brecon and Radnorshire that would save the Welsh Lib Dem leader's seat.

YouGov polled 1,279 Welsh voters for ITV Wales and Cardiff University between March 5 and 9.


Some comfort for Labour and Conservatives in latest poll

The first results from the latest Wales Barometer Poll have just been published on Sharp End. They show how people plan to vote in the Westminster election and indicate that both Labour and Conservatives have managed a modest increase in support since the last poll in January.

  • Labour 39% (+2%)
  • Conservative 25% (+2%)
  • UKIP 14% (-2%)
  • Plaid Cymru 10% (no change)
  • Green 6% (-2%)
  • Lib Dems 5% (-1%)
  • Others 1% (no change)

Expert analysis by Prof Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University suggests that Labour would win two additional seats -Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats- if there was an even swing across Wales. The Conservatives would take Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats. No other seats would change hands.

YouGov polled 1,279 Welsh voters for ITV Wales and Cardiff University between March 5 and 9. Voting intentions for the 2016 Assembly election will be published on Tuesday morning.

Take heart from poll -and take fight to UKIP, First Minister tells Labour

First Minister Carwyn Jones has been talking about the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, which shows Labour support for next year's Westminster election down to 36%. Two years ago, the party enjoyed 54% support in Wales.

UKIP is the only party showing a gain in support Credit: ITV Wales News

What I take heart from is the fact that despite being in government for 17 years, despite what we've seen happening unfortunately to our colleagues in Scotland, we remain by far the most popular choice for the people of Wales.

– First Minister Carwyn Jones AM

Carwyn Jones also said that Labour was ready to take the fight to UKIP, which appears to be on course to become a significant force in the Senedd, according to expert analysis of how people said they would vote in an Assembly election.

Labour still hold the majority with 28 seats Credit: ITV Wales News

We are very keen to combat them by emphasising that UKIP is -when they decide what they stand for- very much a party of the right.

– First Minister Carwyn Jones AM


Wales values us, says Labour

Welsh Labour have welcomed today's opinion poll that puts them on course for two seats in the European Parliament, with support well ahead of the second placed party, UKIP.

The poll also suggests that if voters were choosing a new Assembly, Labour would slip from 30 seats to 29 in the Senedd, leaving the party outnumbered by the combined opposition.

Today’s poll shows clearly that the people of Wales value the hard work of Welsh Labour standing up against the Tories and Lib Dems in Westminster, and delivering for Wales in the Senedd. It’s evident that the Tory war on Wales has backfired and failed to give them the boost of support they were hoping for. Only a vote for Labour in May’s European election will send a message to David Cameron.

For Leanne Wood and Plaid Cymru this poll is not just bad - it’s embarrassing. The so-called party of Wales have stagnated under her leadership. If this poll is accurate only around one in ten people will vote for her party this year and next.

– Welsh Labour

Parties react to poll

The Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have responded to the latest Welsh Opinion Poll, which suggests that Labour will win two of four Welsh seats in the European Parliament next month and that UKIP are in second place.

This poll is consistent with others which have shown the Welsh Conservatives are on course to keep their seat in the European Parliament. Between now and 22 May we will continue to remind people is that if you want to cut the cost of Europe, take back control of our borders, and have the chance to vote in an in-out referendum on Europe then you should vote Conservative. None of the other parties can deliver this.

– Welsh Conservatives

As the only party that puts Wales first, Plaid Cymru will be fighting for every vote in the coming European elections. There is a danger that Wales - our economy, our communities and our culture- could be left totally isolated and under threat if we allow the scaremongering, right wing politics of UKIP to shape our future. People have a choice in this election, and we would urge voters to vote for Plaid Cymru, the only party that will put the interests of Wales first.

– Plaid Cymru
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