The latest Wales barometer poll points to a close battle in the European election in Wales.
A new all-Wales opinion poll puts Labour on course for an extra Welsh seat in the European Parliament.
Prof Roger Scully gives his expert analysis of opinion poll findings on tonight's Y Byd ar Bedwar about the choices facing Welsh councils.
Welsh Labour have welcomed today's opinion poll that puts them on course for two seats in the European Parliament, with support well ahead of the second placed party, UKIP.
The poll also suggests that if voters were choosing a new Assembly, Labour would slip from 30 seats to 29 in the Senedd, leaving the party outnumbered by the combined opposition.
Today’s poll shows clearly that the people of Wales value the hard work of Welsh Labour standing up against the Tories and Lib Dems in Westminster, and delivering for Wales in the Senedd. It’s evident that the Tory war on Wales has backfired and failed to give them the boost of support they were hoping for. Only a vote for Labour in May’s European election will send a message to David Cameron.
– Welsh Labour
For Leanne Wood and Plaid Cymru this poll is not just bad - it’s embarrassing. The so-called party of Wales have stagnated under her leadership. If this poll is accurate only around one in ten people will vote for her party this year and next.
The Conservatives and Plaid Cymru have responded to the latest Welsh Opinion Poll, which suggests that Labour will win two of four Welsh seats in the European Parliament next month and that UKIP are in second place.
– Welsh Conservatives
This poll is consistent with others which have shown the Welsh Conservatives are on course to keep their seat in the European Parliament. Between now and 22 May we will continue to remind people is that if you want to cut the cost of Europe, take back control of our borders, and have the chance to vote in an in-out referendum on Europe then you should vote Conservative. None of the other parties can deliver this.
– Plaid Cymru
As the only party that puts Wales first, Plaid Cymru will be fighting for every vote in the coming European elections. There is a danger that Wales - our economy, our communities and our culture- could be left totally isolated and under threat if we allow the scaremongering, right wing politics of UKIP to shape our future. People have a choice in this election, and we would urge voters to vote for Plaid Cymru, the only party that will put the interests of Wales first.
Despite the row over Welsh income tax between David Jones and Andrew RT Davies, both men agree that there should be a referendum on giving the Welsh Government income tax raising powers -and that the Conservatives would campaign in favour. But Tory voters are deeply hostile to the idea.
Detailed analysis for tonight's Sharp End of the latest Wales Barometer opinion poll shows that Conservative voters are the most heavily against, with Labour voters justifying their party leaders' reluctance to embrace the idea. Lib Dem politicians' enthusiasm is not matched by their supporters.
- How would you vote in a Welsh Income Tax referendum?
- Labour: Yes 36% No 41%
- Conservatives: Yes 16% No 71%
- Plaid Cymru: Yes 60% No 23%
- Lib Dems: Yes 35% No 40%
If Plaid Cymru voters mostly want Welsh income tax, they too could be disappointed. Plaid's leader, Leanne Wood, has said a referendum cannot be a priority due to proposed restrictions on any income tax powers. (The analysis is based on how people would vote when choosing their constituency AM).
Responding to the findings of the latest Wales Barometer poll, a Plaid Cymru spokesperson said,
– Plaid Cymru spokesperson
This poll’s findings in relation to the Labour Government’s performance are damning and reflect the urgent need for a dramatic change of course in health and education.
The European election is some months away, but there is a danger that Wales - our economy, our communities and our culture- could be left totally isolated and under threat if we allow the scaremongering, right wing politics of UKIP to shape our future.
People have a choice in this election, and we would urge voters to vote for Plaid Cymru, the only party that will put the interests of Wales first.
In response to the latest Wales Barometer Poll, Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies said,
This poll confirms that the Welsh Conservatives remain the main challengers to Carwyn Jones’ lazy Labour Government, which has been in power continuously for 15 years.
Welsh Conservatives are the party of low tax and big ideas to get the Welsh economy growing again and put more money in the pockets of hardworking people.
– Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Opposition
These figures demonstrate that an increasing number of people recognise that Labour’s Welsh Government is to blame for poorer standards in schools and hospitals and the underperforming Welsh economy. There remains some way to go in reminding people where responsibility lies and the only poll results which matter are those on election day itself.
The First Minister has been responding to the latest Wales Barometer poll which shows widespread disappointment in the Welsh Government's performance in health, education and the economy.
Despite the strong showing in UKIP support for this May's European Election, the Wales Barometer Poll shows that supporters of staying in the European Union now outnumber those who would vote in a referendum to leave the EU.
- Stay in EU 41% (38% in December)
- Leave EU 38% (40% in December)
- Don't know/Won't vote 22% (22% in December)
Meanwhile, as the prospect of a referendum on the devolution of income tax powers appears to be receding, support for the whole idea is also in decline.
- Yes 31% (35% in December)
- No 42% (38% in December)
- Don't know/Won't vote 28% (26% in December)