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Miliband and Wood least disliked leaders

Our poll also asked voters to rate how much they liked -or disliked- the leaders heading their parties UK and Welsh election campaigns. When the likes and disliked were averaged out, no-one achieved even 50% likeability. Ed Miliband and Leanne Wood were the two most popular -or more accurately, the least disliked.

Here's how the leaders of the Welsh election campaigns rated:

  • Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru): 47%
  • Kirsty Williams (Liberal Democrat): 41%
  • Stephen Crabb (Conservative) 37%
  • Owen Smith (Labour): 36%
  • Pippa Bartolotti (Green): 35%
  • Nathan Gill (UKIP): 30%

And the UK leaders:

  • Ed Miliband (Labour): 47%
  • David Cameron (Conservative): 40%
  • Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat): 40%
  • Natalie Bennett (Green): 39%
  • Nigel Farage (UKIP): 35%

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Poll shows Welsh Labour lead still 14%

YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, 4-8 May. Sample: 1,202 Credit: ITV Cymru Wales

The final poll of Welsh voters before tomorrow's election shows Labour maintaining their lead over the Conservatives in Wales, with Plaid Cymru edging just ahead of UKIP. Liberal Democrat support is slightly up and the Greens are down, compared with the last poll three weeks ago.

The exclusive poll for ITV Cymru Wales puts Labour on 39%, the Conservatives on 25, Plaid Cymru on 13, Ukip on 12 and the Liberal Democrats on 8%. The results show a slight increase in support for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats over the last two weeks, with the other main parties each down 1%.

Here's the full result for Westminster voting intention from YouGov's Welsh Barometer Poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University:

  • Labour 39% (-1%)
  • Conservative 25% (-1%)
  • Plaid Cymru 13% (+1%)
  • UKIP 12% (-1%)
  • Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
  • Greens 2% (-2%)

Figures in brackets show the change since the last Barometer Poll, 13-15 April

  1. Nick Powell

Poll shows Labour maintaining lead in Wales

The latest Welsh opinion poll shows Labour maintaining its lead in Wales. For the first time, the results of the Welsh Barometer Poll have been weighted to reflect how likely people say they are to vote.

  • Labour 40%
  • Conservative 26%
  • UKIP 13%
  • Plaid Cymru 12%
  • Liberal Democrats 6%
  • Green 4%

The figures show little change since the last two Welsh polls, which were both carried out just before the televised debate by party leaders.

  • YouGov polled 1,143 Welsh adults for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, 13-15 April 2015.

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  1. Nick Powell

Poll shows increased Labour lead in Wales

Labour has reached 40% support in Wales for the first time in recent polls Credit: YouGov/ITV/Cardiff University Jan 24-27, Sample: 1,189

The first Welsh opinion poll of the General Election campaign shows that Labour has slightly improved its position, reaching 40% for the first time in nearly a year. YouGov's latest Welsh Barometer Poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University still puts the party well below the 50% plus it was polling before UKIP support started to climb two years ago. But it's 4% higher than the 2010 General Election result.

If opinion doesn't shift further during the election campaign, that should be enough to deliver Labour a couple of extra seats on May 7. The Conservatives on 25% are just 1% down on the result five years ago and Plaid Cymru's 11% shows no change on 2010. Those figures put both parties on course for no overall change in the number of Welsh seats they hold.

The inequalities built into the electoral system mean that the Liberal Democrats, down 15% on 5% can still hope to hold on to at least one seat but UKIP, up 12% to 14% are not on course to break through in any Welsh constituencies. The Greens are similarly disadvantaged, despite being neck and neck with the Liberal Democrats in this poll.

  1. Nick Powell

Welsh Barometer poll points to six party Senedd

The latest Welsh Barometer poll suggests that if the next Assembly election was held this week, Labour would get 29 of the 60 seats. That's one fewer than at present and two short of an overall majority. A total of six parties would be represented in the Senedd.

In terms of how people would vote, there's been a drift towards the biggest parties since the last poll in January. Labour and the Conservatives were the beneficiaries in the Westminster poll, published last night. In the Assembly, it's those two parties plus Plaid Cymru.

Everyone gets two votes in an Assembly election, one for a constituency AM, the other for a party regional list. These are the constituency figures, with the change since January in brackets:

  • Labour 37% (+3%)
  • Conservative 22% (+1%)
  • Plaid Cymru 20% (+2%)
  • UKIP 11% (-2%)
  • Lib Dem 6% (-1%)
  • Green 4% (-2%)
  • Others 1% (no change)

The regional list figures show similar trends, though with a noticeable increase in support for Plaid Cymru and drop in support for UKIP.

  • Labour 33% (+1%)
  • Conservative 22% (+2%)
  • Plaid Cymru 21% (+6%)
  • UKIP 12% (-4%)
  • Lib Dem 5% (-3%)
  • Green 5% (-3%)
  • Others 2% (no change)

Prof Roger Scully has analysed how these figures would translate into seats in the Senedd, on an even swing across Wales. Four party politics would become six, though the Lib Dems and Greens would only just make it to Cardiff Bay.

  • Labour 29 seats
  • Conservatives 13 seats
  • Plaid Cymru 11 seats
  • UKIP 5 seats
  • Liberal Democrats 1 seat
  • Greens 1 seat

The list voting system would deliver representation to UKIP and the Greens for the first time but it would be the majority built up by Kirsty Williams in Brecon and Radnorshire that would save the Welsh Lib Dem leader's seat.

YouGov polled 1,279 Welsh voters for ITV Wales and Cardiff University between March 5 and 9.

Some comfort for Labour and Conservatives in latest poll

The first results from the latest Wales Barometer Poll have just been published on Sharp End. They show how people plan to vote in the Westminster election and indicate that both Labour and Conservatives have managed a modest increase in support since the last poll in January.

  • Labour 39% (+2%)
  • Conservative 25% (+2%)
  • UKIP 14% (-2%)
  • Plaid Cymru 10% (no change)
  • Green 6% (-2%)
  • Lib Dems 5% (-1%)
  • Others 1% (no change)

Expert analysis by Prof Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University suggests that Labour would win two additional seats -Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats- if there was an even swing across Wales. The Conservatives would take Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats. No other seats would change hands.

YouGov polled 1,279 Welsh voters for ITV Wales and Cardiff University between March 5 and 9. Voting intentions for the 2016 Assembly election will be published on Tuesday morning.

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