The weather over the last few days has been rather unsettled with hail, thunder and torrential downpours already leading to localised flooding in several parts of south Wales. With more persistent rain expected for the rest of the day, are we about to see similar scenes to St Asaph last year?
The answer, unfortunately, is maybe. The weather recently seems to be following a similar pattern to the weather in the run up to the flooding in St Asaph. The isolated downpours over the weekend in south Wales were topped up by significant rain on Monday leaving the ground saturated.
The rain falling today is likely to fall on ground that can't be absorbed in to the ground, rapidly leading to surface water flooding and putting pressure on already swollen rivers.
The first pulse of rain is expected from 8am until lunchtime. Once this passes a combination of moisture laden mild air hitting the southern hills is could bring more rain through the afternoon. A third burst of heavier rain is then expected from mid afternoon in to the evening.
The air in this final band of rain is particularly unstable and could see torrential downpours falling on already sodden ground that could lead to widespread flooding somewhere in south Wales.