The polls have closed in the Ynys Môn by-election and counting the votes is getting underway to decide who will be Anglesey's new AM. Sources in different political parties are all predicting that Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth will hold the seat.
Speculation centres on Plaid's majority -the party's defending the 10% lead of its former leader Ieuan Wyn Jones at the 2011 Assembly election- and on how well UKIP will perform. It's thought that the Conservatives, who came second two years ago, will be the main casualties of any UKIP advance.
That could put Labour, who need a win to secure a Senedd majority, in second place. The Lib Dems lost their deposit in 2011 and will be doing well to improve on that performance when the results are declared at about 2am. They can hope that Socialist Labour will finish behind them in last place.
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