The Nuffield Trust report says if the NHS does not receive additional funding, it would have to improve productivity at a record rate and sustain it for a period of time in order to close the financial gap of £2.5bn by 2025/26.
This would have to be at a rate not seen in the history of the NHS or other countries' health systems.
Adam Roberts, lead author and Senior Analyst at the Nuffield Trust said:
“Our analysis reveals, for the first time, the scale of the task ahead regarding the Welsh NHS’s finances.
"Money for the service is already tight – NHS funding is likely to be 3.6% lower in real terms at the end of the next financial year than it was in 2010/11 – but the big unknown is what will happen after the 2015 spending review.
The pressures facing the NHS in Wales outlined in the report include:
- Population growth
- Longer life expectancy
- Rising number of prescriptions
- Staff wages
More top news
Generally cloudy with fairly persistent rain through this evening, but the cloud and rain will break up overnight with drier conditions.
Wales fans are continuing to celebrate yesterday's historic Euro 2016 win over Northern Ireland, which sees them make the quarter finals.
A lot has happened in the days since the Brexit result. We've been asking people how they're feeling about the fallout of the referendum.