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  1. ITV Report

Poll predicts Lib Dem electoral wipeout in the West

An exclusive ITV opinion poll shows the Liberal Democrats are facing electoral wipeout in the South West - with the party on course to lose all but one of their seats in the region.

The ITV News ComRes poll is based on research in all the constituencies held by the party in our region. If it is translated at the polls it would transform the political make-up of our region - and put the Tories on course to win an overall majority.

In yellow on this map you'll see the current Lib Dem seats.

With the swing to the Tories predicted in this poll it would look like this after May 7. On the day that leader Nick Clegg announced his manifesto, the poll by ComRes showed the party could lose 14 out of its 15 seats in the region. It would leave Bristol West as the Lib Dems' sole constituency.

In further bad news for Nick Clegg, three in ten voters in these seats - 29 per cent - say that Mr Clegg puts them off voting for the Liberal Democrats. Strikingly, one in three voters in these Liberal Democrat seats - 32 per cent - say that the party has become irrelevant.

The Liberal Democrat vote in its 14 South West seats has evaporated – where in 2010 it achieved nearly half of the vote in these constituencies, it now looks set to win just one in four votes.

The Conservatives have taken a commanding lead in these Liberal Democrat heartlands, with their vote share increasing from 39.5 per cent in 2010 to 44 per cent now. Labour, UKIP and the Greens have all also made gains as a result of the Liberal Democrat decline.

The real big thing for the Lib Dems is to keep hold of their current seats. They're not going to be looking to win any new seats, so it's bad news for them that though here in their heartlands in the South West they will be losing some of those 14 seats. Probably quite a large number of those, which spells trouble for the rest of the country.

– Tom Mludzinski, ComRes

One of those 14 seats is Chippenham. Mayor of London Boris Johnson was out campaigning for Conservative challenger Michelle Donelan today, and talked up the Tories' chances.

However Mr Clegg, launching the Lib Dem manifesto in London, called the poll's findings "total and utter nonsense", avowing that the party had a great story to tell voters and could hold on to its heartland.