Wood's what if? What if the final exit poll is right?


Well here we are the campaigning and voting is over, the new formation of the House of Commons has been decided, we just need thousands of people in random halls across the country to add up those votes and let us know.

Tom Bradby has just announced the ITV Exit Poll in our overnight programme and, for my final what if, there is only one question - what if the exit poll is right?

Each of the three leaders will be nervously awaiting the results. Credit: PA Images

Well the long and short of it is that it would suggest the Conservative grip on the West Country has weakened, although probably not by a huge amount.

One caveat is that exit polls sometimes get the margins at the top wrong - remember the one in 2015 slightly under estimated the Conservative majority.

It does look though like the Conservative and Labour share of the votes have increased.

The first ballot papers have arrived in North Somerset Credit: North Somerset Council

If the senior party visits here in the last couple of weeks are anything to go by they're concerned about the rise of the Lib Dems in three seats and Labour in two - basically a tenth of the West Country seats.

It is impossible to predict where they will be, but if I had to, then if the Lib Dems are going to make any gains here - Bath, Cheltenham, Wells and St Ives are the more likely seats.

As for Labour they will have hopes in South Swindon and Stroud, but while the party's leadership didn't put any obvious effort into Plymouth the party would be disappointed not to win one of the marginal seats - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport more likely.

Counting has started in Cornwall Credit: Cornwall Council

The Conservatives had all but four West Country seats at the last election and while they're predicted to lose seats across the country this opinion poll is almost too close to call.

The Lib Dems are only set to make five gains which suggests that Remain voting seats are likely to be the ones they pick up.

This poll really points to a hung Parliament, and based on these numbers the Liberal Democrats could hold a balance of power.

If this poll is right we could have days of negotiations about who will be our next Prime Minister, and even the possibility of another election in the coming months!

Counters are ready to go in South Hams. Credit: South Hams Council

Spare a thought overnight for the staff - normally four or five - of the MP's from the last Parliament who are nervously waiting to see if their boss gets re-elected, if they don't then their staff will lose their jobs too.

And this brings an end to the last 'Wood's what if?' of this General Election.

Thanks if you've been reading them, I hope they've given a slightly different take on this surprise election.

Throughout the night we will bring you all of the West Country results on the website and will have a full round up throughout our programmes and bulletins tomorrow!

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    Theresa May cannot form a majority Government and having lost four seats - so far - in the West Country could have made all the difference.