What the experts say: Tour de France predictions

ITV.com/tour asked a host of cycling experts - writers, reporters, bloggers and editors - to predict the final podium for the 2012 Tour and tell us how they think the race might unfold.

Gary Imlach, ITV presenter

1. Bradley Wiggins
2. Cadel Evans
3. Robert Gesink

On the one hand I'm taken aback by just what a massive favourite Wiggins is. On the other, the course, his form and his supporting cast - on and off the bike - all make the case for him. Of course, that comes with all the usual caveats about unforeseen events - and, really, that's what this race will be relying on. As wonderful as it would be to see a British winner, nobody wants to watch Wiggins & Evans eye each other all the way round until the final time trial. That's why I pick Gesink for third. I've no particular confidence that he'll do it, but I hope that he, or someone like him, risks everything in the mountains rather than riding for fifth or sixth place.

Ned Boulting, ITV reporter
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1. Cadel Evans
2. Chris Froome
3. Bradley Wiggins

I still give Evans a slight edge, based not on his form, but on his previous. He's shown great resilience and intelligence in the past, and the knowledge that he has won it before might be the difference. Of the two (Evans and Wiggins) I think he may the less likely to have a catastrophically bad day. But there's almost nothing between them. Chris Froome is the big unknown.

Matt Rendell, ITV4 reporter and cycling writer/commentator

1. Bradley Wiggins
2. Ryder Hesjedal
3. Rui Costa

Wiggins, because Dave Brailsford is redefining the sport, and Bradley has the brains, the character and the talent to profit from it. Hesjedal, because he's strong enough and crazy enough to take the others on, rather than riding passively in the mountains. Costa, because someone is going to escape, gain 10 minutes, and get themselves on the podium. I say Rui Costa, but it could equally well be Simon Gerrans or Dan Martin ...

William Fotheringham, Guardian/Observer cycling correspondent
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1. Bradley Wiggins
2. Cadel Evans
3. Pierre Rolland

On paper I would expect a hectic first week with a lot of crashes, an initial move by Evans at the first hilltop finish after seven days, then Wiggins to bounce back in the time trial after eight days. After which he will ride a controlled if tense race to Paris. That's on paper. In practice the unexpected can happen and probably will.

The Inner Ring, Cycling blog

1. Bradley Wiggins
2. Cadel Evans
3. Denis Menchov

Bookmakers give Bradley Wiggins tighter odds to win than Lance Armstrong got in his heyday but the route suits him, he's been strong all year and has a powerful team. Last year’s winner Cadel Evans is a dependable pick. There's a wide choice of other contenders but I picked stealthy Russian Dennis Menchov. But the race is three weeks long and anything can happen.

Pete Geyer, cyclingfans.com editor

1. Cadel Evans
2. Denis Menchov
3. Bradley Wiggins

All season the story for the Tour has been about Evans v Wiggins and there is no obvious reason to question that assumption. Team Sky was created with the goal of winning the Tour with a Brit and this may be the best shot Wiggins will ever have - talk about pressure.  Evans has been there before, has shown he has panache, and well knows victory in the Tour is built over a full three weeks. He is also more likely to take risks and he may have to. Evans will look to secure yellow in the Pyrenees, with enough time to hold off a furious challenge for overall victory in the final time trial.

Chris Alfred, Cycling betting blogger
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1) Cadel Evans
2) Bradley Wiggins
3) Robert Gesink

Cadel Evans and Bradley Wiggins are clearly the two riders who are in the best form and whose skills suit the course. It will be close between them and I expect this race to be as close as the Giro d'Italia was between Ryder Hesjedal and Joaquin Rodriguez. I have to favour Evans as he has the experience and nous of winning a Grand Tour. Robert Gesink is my choice for third: he is the only climber who can come close to Evans and Wiggins in time trials.

Gavin Brown, Metro

1 Cadel Evans
2 Ryder Hesjedal
3 Bradley Wiggins

Bradley Wiggins has had the perfect year and is a worthy favourite, but has he peaked too soon? And how will he handle the expectation? Cadel Evans has shown form in recent weeks and may still be on an upward curve, whereas Wiggins may have levelled off. Evans' willingness to take the initiative may also prove crucial. Giro winner Ryder Hesjedal this week claimed he still felt strong at the end of that race and has been 'energised' by his first grand tour win. If his form holds, a rise in self-belief can put him on the podium.

Luke McLaughlin, ITV.com/tour editor

1. Cadel Evans
2. Bradley Wiggins
3. Vincenzo Nibali

It's all perfectly set up for Bradley Wiggins to win which is why, this being the Tour, I fear he'll end up losing to someone after extra-time and penalties. I suspect that person may be Cadel Evans, whose victory last year is just one factor that's made him a more confident competitor. Team Sky also have to juggle the twin aims of stage wins for Mark Cavendish and GC for Wiggins. The two riders and the team are full of good intentions now but will it be so easy when the pressure is really on? Keep an eye out for Vincenzo Nibali, too, a Grand Tour winner who hasn't prioritised the Tour de France in previous years but is preparing to throw everything at it this year.

Check out Gary Imlach's stage guide videos and read our rider profiles.