For a time last year, Ukip's momentum had seemed unstoppable - third party in the polls, two defections from the Tories and a real danger to the Conservatives heading into the election campaign.
But their poll ratings have been slipping and now our exclusive ITV News/ComRes poll of 10 Conservative-held Ukip target seats suggests that they haven't got a large enough vote share across these seats to be sure of winning ANY of them.
Across these 10 seats our results show that Ukip isn't even the main challenger to the Tories - trailing Labour in third place.
And with just 21% of the vote, they are some way off the 30% vote share they need to win any one of them.
So does this mean Nigel Farage is in danger of not coming out on top in South Thanet? Well, it won't make him feel very secure.
But there could still be a handful of Ukip successes, in seats where either the candidate stands out, or they decide to concentrate most of their money and campaigning efforts.
So Nigel Farage can't be written off.
And whilst overall the poll brings the Conservatives a welcome boost, it does confirm some of their fears. In two of the seats we polled, Thurrock and Great Yarmouth, the results suggest that Ukip could yet help Labour to victory by splitting the Conservative vote.
So Ukip might not be on course for the earthquake they once promised but with the race between the two main parties so tight - they are causing minor tremors the Conservatives could do without.