Tory Brexiter MPs revolt against May’s Brexit plan
The True Brexiters of the European Research Group will have an emergency meeting with the chief whip Julian Smith this morning to express deep concerns about Theresa May’s Brexit plan, which I disclosed yesterday.
They fear that what she wants her Cabinet to agree at Chequers on Friday does not represent a clean-enough break with the EU.
One of them said: “I think the consequences will be dire. The kick back will be against politicians and democracy itself. Why should 17.4 million people vote for anything ever again?”
So the stakes for them are very high - which they will express forcibly to Smith.
What is hateful to them is:
May’s proposal to collect tariffs for the EU at the UK’s borders with the rest of the world, in order to keep open the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Permanent alignment between EU and UK rules for manufacturing and agricultural-foods businesses, to keep these businesses in effect inside the single market, overseen in part by the European Court of Justice, subject to ultimate arbitration by an EFTA-style international court.
Offering enhanced rights to work in the UK to EU citizens as a bargaining chip to secure better EU market access for the service companies that dominate our economy.
But for May and Olly Robbins, the civil servant in charge of negotiating Brexit for her, these proposals - which of course may be rejected by the rest of the EU - are the preferred route to minimise the economic costs of Brexit, while sticking to her own Brexit red lines and keeping open the border in Ireland.
The True Brexit MPs will spend the next 48 hours frantically trying to push her back to a Brexit plan that looks more like a conventional free-trade agreement (apart from anything else, they also know that what she wants would see the EU insist the UK continuing to contribute to its budget forever).
If they fail in their lobbying, there is the sotto-voce threat from them of forcing a confidence vote in her leadership by Tory MPs before the summer recess.
She is acutely aware of that risk, so is signaling she would not go quietly if there were merely a sizeable protest vote against her (see the Sunday Times of the weekend).
Her colleagues say she would continue as Tory leader and PM unless and until a majority of her MPs cast their votes against her, rather then taking the hint if - say - 100 Tory MPs refused to back her.
“That would leave her and us even more weakened than we are today”, said one grizzled Conservative, adding “It simply can’t go on like this”.
But what to do, what to do?