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  1. ITV Report

Is the tide about to turn blue for the Tories in Wales?

  • By ITV News Wales Correspondent Rupert Evelyn

Are we at a tipping point in Welsh politics?

Ordinarily the answer to that question would veers towards a "No" but it’s just possible that when Wales votes on Thursday it will deliver something seismic.

Labour look set to win in Wales, no change there, but the win might come with some heavy losses.

The latest YouGov Poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University suggests the Conservatives could finish with as many as 16 seats - double the number they achieved in 2017.

Is there about to be a change in Wales?

Labour on the other hand could lose 8 leaving them with 20, exactly half the total number of seats available.

If and it’s a big “IF” that were to happen it would be the highest Tory vote share since 1900 and the worst Labour seat numbers in Wales since 1983 (when there were only 38 available).

Plaid Cymru are hopeful of also making an impact.

As for the other parties - Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems will battle it out over the remaining four seats.

The poll predicts three to Plaid and one to the Lib Dems.

It could be an historic day for Welsh politics but observers, like me, have been here before and are wary of building-up expectations of a 'Welsh-quake' that ends in little more than a rumble.