Can Donald Trump still win the US election? Absolutely, yes
It is probably fair to say that there are many people in the UK, even some on the right of the political spectrum, who find the enduring appeal of Donald Trump to American voters utterly baffling.
How can someone so rude, erratic and apparently rash still be adored by millions of Americans?
How has he got away with not only breaking, but smashing up, just about every political norm of the last half century?
And is it really conceivable that he could still win?
Well, the simple answer to this last question is: yes, absolutely. And here is why;
Part of his appeal is the very fact that he does break every political norm. To some in particular groups - the elderly, men in general - he is an antidote to political correctness that has (in their view) gone too far.
The racial unrest of 2020 has unsettled some voters this year. The general consensus is that Trump’s law and order message is less effective than Nixon’s in comparable circumstances in 1968, because views on race are more nuanced now - but there is no doubt it appeals to some.
The economy was doing well pre-Covid and some believe he is best placed to get America back on its feet when the pandemic has passed. The data suggests the Trump mini-boom was in fact only a continuation of the Barack Obama years but he has kept his core economic promises; to cut taxes, to slash regulation and renegotiate trade deals (such as NAFTA).
There are plenty of promises that have not been kept (the wall is far from finished and the Mexicans definitely did not pay for it), but another one that relates to the number of conservative judges appointed. The new make-up of the Supreme Court may well be Trump’s most enduring legacy.
The polls have told a very consistent story throughout what has seemed a very stable race.
Not only is Biden a long way ahead in pretty much every national poll, he also leads in all the swing states; not just those key blue wall states that fell to Trump last time (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where one poll this week put Biden 17 points clear) but also in traditionally Republican states like Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
Even Texas looks close, with huge early turnout already, and Florida is of course, as always, very tight.But here is a basic fact; there is just no way of predicting for sure how a nation of more than 300 million is going to vote.
Last time pollsters missed a massive shift in white working class voters to Trump, especially in those key mid-western states.
So could Trump still win?
Do join us at 11pm on Tuesday to find out. It promises to be quite a night.
Watch Trump vs Biden: The Results on Tuesday 3rd November from 11pm on ITV