New poll puts Labour in comfortable lead over Conservatives with 45% of the vote

There's a feeling in Labour that for the first time in many years, this is a party that can see a route to power, as Political Correspondent Romilly Weeks reports

Labour is on course for a comfortable majority at the next election, a new poll has found, as party members gather for its annual conference.

New polling shows Labour with a 12 point lead over the Conservatives, generating a commanding majority if such results were to play out at the next general election in 2024.

Voting intention shows Labour in the lead with 45%, the Conservatives at 33%, the Lib Dems at 10%, the Greens at 4% and Reform at 3%, according to the findings by Savanta ComRes for LabourList.

The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll found Labour would secure a comfortable 56-seat majority at the next election.

The model suggested that with such a lead, Labour would regain many so-called 'Red Wall' seats – constituencies traditionally considered to be safe Labour seats but many of which returned Conservative MPs at the last election – including Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Blyth Valley, Sedgefield and Workington.

Of the 357 parliamentary constituencies currently held by the Conservative Party, voters in 279 of those said that they trusted Labour more to manage policies related to the rising cost of living crisis than the Conservatives.

This included 132 constituencies in which the model shows Labour not gaining from the Tories at the next election.

It comes as Labour members gather in Liverpool for the first day of the annual party conference on Sunday.

Sir Keir Starmer will seek to project himself as a future prime minister in his speech on Tuesday, with his confidence boosted by a comfortable lead in the polls.

However, there are concerns that the gap is not wider despite the turmoil of former prime minister Boris Johnson’s government and while voters are still unsure about the direction his successor Liz Truss is taking.

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It comes after Ms Truss's chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced the biggest programme of tax cuts for 50 years, including abolishing the top rate of income tax for the highest earners, and using more than £70 billion of increased borrowing.

The £45 billion tax-slashing package was met with alarm by leading economists, some Conservative MPs and financial markets – with the pound tumbling to fresh 37-year lows.

Over the four-day event, Labour will set out its party pledges and policies, while seeking to set out the dividing lines between his party and the new Tory government.

Commenting on the poll's findings, Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta ComRes said: “This MRP model highlights both the potential and precarious nature of Labour’s polling lead at the moment.

"Many traditional polls, and this MRP model, show Labour enjoying double-digit leads over the Conservative Party, but one percentage point either way could be the difference between a sizeable Labour majority, a small Labour majority, or no majority at all."