UK economy grew 0.2% over three months to June, revised data shows


The UK economy grew slightly over the second quarter after a previously predicted decline was revised by the Office for National Statistics.

It means that the UK might not currently be in recession, as was predicted by the Bank of England earlier this month.

A technical recession is when the economy witnesses two consecutive quarters of decline.

The ONS said on Friday that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% over the three months to June.

It had previously estimated that the economy shrank by 0.1% over the period.

Based on this previous guidance, the Bank of England implied the UK was likely to currently be in recession as it forecast another decline, of 0.2%, for the three months to September, in its Monetary Policy Committee meeting earlier this month.

However, the new figures from the ONS mean that, even if the economy declines as predicted this quarter, it will not yet be in recession.

The ONS said this was driven by upwards improvements for the health and financial sectors.

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ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “These improved figures show the economy grew in the second quarter, revised up from a small fall.

“They also show that, while household savings fell back in the most recent quarter, households saved more than we previously estimated during and after the pandemic.”

Economists said they believe overall GDP is now 0.2% below pre-pandemic levels, having previously said they thought it was 0.6% bigger than before Covid-19 struck.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The downturn in economic activity during 2020 looks even worse than previously thought, and the subsequent recovery even weaker, following the latest set of national accounts revisions.

“These revisions will compel the OBR to revise down further its estimates for future potential GDP, though as they also imply that the tax-to-GDP ratio is higher than previously estimated, the impact on the public finances should be modest.”