Rishi Sunak concedes General Election to Labour
By ITV News Producer Hannah Ward-Glenton
Labour will win with a majority of 178 seats according to the latest ITV News forecast, leaving the party one seat shy of Tony Blair's 1997 majority
The original exit poll by Ipsos UK for ITV News/Sky News/BBC had predicted a 170-seat majority for Labour
Many high-profile Conservatives lose their seats, including Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Simon Hart, Gillian Keegan, Alex Chalk, Jonathan Gullis, Jonny Mercer and Lucy Frazer
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is elected in Clacton
Greens take Bristol Central with party co-leader Carla Denyer
Jeremy Corbyn wins Islington North as an Independent candidate
Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jonathan Ashworth loses seat to pro-Palestine Independent candidate
George Galloway loses his Rochdale seat to Labour's Paul Waugh
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has conceded the General Election, saying that the British people had delivered a “sobering verdict” on his party.
Sunak has held his seat in Richmond and Northallerton.
ITV News is forecasting an even greater majority for Labour than the landslide victory predicted by the exit poll by Ipsos UK for ITV News/Sky News/BBC.
The new forecast suggests Labour will win with a majority of 178 seats - the original exit poll had predicted a 170-seat majority.
The Ipsos UK poll suggested the swing will be close to the all-time record of 12.1% at the first post-war General Election in 1945.
On the basis of the poll that interviewed 20,401 people at 133 polling stations across the United Kingdom, the BBC, ITN News and Sky News are forecasting Labour will win with a majority of 170 - while the Conservatives will fall to 131 seats.
Labour sources told ITV News that they expect to be the largest party in England, Scotland and Wales, and that they would be the first party to do so in 23 years.
The forecasted big victory could be built on a relatively small share of the electorate, with Labour having benefited more from the collapse of the Conservatives in terms of seats gained rather than share of the vote won. An uptick in support for smaller parties is likely to have contributed to this.
The Conservatives have fallen back sharply in all areas and look likely to have recorded their lowest ever share of the vote in a General Election, stretching right back to the birth of modern elections in 1832.
Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner said the Labour party was "very encouraged" by the exit poll.
"[The poll] shows that 14 years of the Conservatives, where they've had chaos and decline - people are really punishing them for that record of failure," Rayner said.
Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner was forced to grab an umbrella while giving her response to the exit poll as rain started to pour in Manchester
"It's incredible that so many people, it looks like, have given Labour that opportunity. And if we do have that opportunity with all of those fantastic candidates that we put forward... As Keir Starmer says, if Labour does win power tonight, it's about putting country first, party second, and we're all very clear about that."
Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer held his seat of Holborn and St Pancras as expected, but his majority was greatly reduced to 18,884 votes, compared to the 27,763-vote majority he had in the 2019 General Election.
Former Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne congratulated "Prime Minister Starmer" shortly after the exit poll was released, describing the predicted Labour victory as "an incredible win".
"[Starmer] and Rachel Reeves did a brilliant job of reassuring the country that there was no risk [with] changing to Labour," Osborne said.
"As for the Conservatives, it's going to sound odd - there'll be a bit of a sigh of relief. Even though it's the worst result since 1832 when the Duke of Wellington was running the Tory party. This feels more like the Tory party's Waterloo frankly."
Big Conservative losses
The Ipsos UK poll forecast heavy casualties for the Conservative party and by 4:25am the following MPs had lost their seats:
Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps
Chief Whip Simon Hart
Education Secretary Gillian Keegan
Justice Secretary Alex Chalk
Deputy Chairman Jonathan Gullis
Minister for Veterans’ Affairs Jonny Mercer
Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer
Suella Braverman was one of the big Conservative names to keep her seat, and she delivered a scathing victory speech after the announcement.
After winning the Fareham and Waterlooville seat Braverman apologised for Conservatives’ failings.
“I’m sorry that my party didn’t listen to you. The Conservative Party has let you down,” she said. “You, the great British people, voted for us over 14 years and we did not keep our promises.”
Braverman, a likely leadership contender if Rishi Sunak quits following the election, said: “I will do everything in my power to rebuild trust, adding: “We need to listen to you, you have spoken to us very clearly.”
Reform UK upsurge and Leave voter influence
Geographical variation in the support for the Conservatives has been driven by an upsurge in support for Reform UK. The poll shows that Nigel Farage's party is eating into the Conservative vote in pro-Leave Conservative seats where the Brexit Party did not stand last time.
The poll also shows a decisive swing to Labour in Conservative seats that had strongly voted Leave in the EU Referendum in 2016, showing that the 'red wall' appears to have been rebuilt.
There appears to be a trend of constituencies that favoured UKIP in 2015 moving to Labour in this election. This could be read as Labour appealing to Leave voters, but there is another explanation, Professor of Political Science and British Politics Jane Green said.
"What I think is happening is Reform is appealing to Leave voters, those people that voted Conservative last time. That's dampening the Conservative share - that's allowing the Labour party to get ahead.
You can find out when your constituency is likely to declare its results below
That trend could be particularly significant in Clacton, which is Nigel Farage's seat, she added.
"It's going to be hugely significant that Reform are helping Labour."
Former Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Ed Balls said that the "wise heads" in Labour will recognise "risks" in this result.
"Look at the surge in Reform, gaining 13 seats on this exit poll. We'll wait to see what Labour's share of the vote is, but this may not be a great share of the vote for Labour," Balls said.
"This is a very, very volatile political time that we are in. There'll be people who look across and see what Macron has achieved when he won just a few years ago and how quickly that has turned around to disaster with the rise of the far right in France," he added.
Friday's newspaper front pages will react to the exit poll predictions of a historic Labour Party victory as the Conservatives faced their worst defeat ever
The poll estimates that Reform UK will come second in 155 seats. In 2015 UKIP, which was led by Nigel Farage, came second in 120 seats. Despite the constituency boundaries having shifted since then, the change shows a huge uptick in support for this type of political party.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage posted a video on X just after midnight to say that the party's results so far were "almost unbelievable", adding that it meant they were "going to win seats, many many seats".
He later went on to win the seat of Clacton.
Lee Anderson was announced as the first ever Reform UK MP just after 2am as he was elected in Ashfield with a majority of 17,062 votes, well ahead of Labour's Rhea Keehn who received 11,553 votes
Labour has made advances in seats where they are a clear challenger to the Conservatives, but less so in typically Labour-voting areas.
A Lib Dem comeback and Greens winning over young voters
The poll shows that the Liberal Democrats appear to have recovered, particularly in constituencies where seats were lost following the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition.
The party is set to win over five times as many MPs in parliament compared with the 2019 General Election.
A raft of seats south and west of London, reaching as far as Cornwall, look set to fall to Ed Davey's party following its carefully targeted campaign.
The Greens have polled particularly well in places with a large number of younger voters, with their popularity increasing in some safe Labour areas.
Co-leader Carla Denyer won the party's first seat of the night, Bristol Central, by beating Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire.
“We did it! Bristol, we made history… thank you so much to the people of Bristol Central who have elected me as their MP,” she posted on X.
“As this city’s first Green MP, I promise to be a strong, independent voice for Bristol’s values, pushing the govt to be bolder on the issues that matter.”
Former Chancellor George Osborne and former Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls discuss the job that Rachel Reeves will have ahead of her if she becomes the first ever female Chancellor of the Exchequer
A mixed bag in Scotland
Predicting the result in Scotland is challenging because of the different pattern of party competition and the large number of marginal seats. It may be that the SNP has seen a significant decrease, which is likely to lead to gains for Labour, as well as the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.
When posed with the question of whether people in Scotland would describe the projected results as "all [her] fault", former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: "Absolutely, I don't doubt that at all."
"This is at the grimmer end of expectations for the SNP if the exit poll is right, and... I suspect it will be broadly right," Sturgeon said. She said the poll showed it was "not a good night for SNP".
She added that a double whammy of a "depressed turnout" of SNP voters due to a lack of enthusiasm and a genuine swing to Labour had contributed to the party's struggle to garner votes.
"I think that Reform is a big, big problem... Mainstream parties really have to get to grips with this or this is going to be a continuous destablisation effect in years to come," the former first minister added in light of the huge boost to Reform UK.
You can watch the General Election results live on ITV 1, ITVX and on YouTube as we bring you all the updates and expert analysis through the night.
Former Justice Minister Sir Robert Buckland was the first senior Conservative to lose their seat as Swindon South voted in Labour's Heidi Alexander
How does the exit poll work? And is it accurate?
Exit polls are the most accurate poll carried out before the General Election results are declared because it is based on people who have already voted.
20,401 people were selected at random from 133 locations and asked who they voted for - this is done in private on a ballot paper, to replicate the anonymity of filling out the real ballot paper.
That data is then analysed to give a national exit poll prediction of how many MPs each party is likely to gain in the next parliament.
Exit poll predictions have become more accurate with time, but there is always a margin of error.
Speaking shortly after the exit poll, Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy said that there is still "a lot to play out" overnight, and added that the predicted Tory victory was by no means a given.
"I still can't quite believe that the Conservatives are down to the sorts of numbers that are being predicted, that's just my sense, but let us see," he said.
In 2019 the forecast of a Conservative majority of 86 seats was very close to the final 80-seat victory margin.
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