Which East of England seats would change hands in the latest YouGov poll warning of Tory wipeout?

Lucy Frazer and Grant Shapps.
Credit: PA

The Conservatives are on course for heavy losses in the East of England, according to a major new poll which warns that a General Election could hand them a defeat on a par with the Labour landslide of 1997.

The survey of nearly 14,000 people, compiled by YouGov and reported in the Daily Telegraph, shows Sir Keir Starmer's Labour winning 385 seats to establish a 120-seat majority, with Rishi Sunak's Tories left with just 169 MPs in the Commons.

And there are eye-catching predicted results in the East of England, with two cabinet ministers poised to lose, several traditionally marginal seats swinging emphatically to Labour and notable scalps for the Liberal Democrats.

Overall, Labour gain 22 more seats in the region and the Lib Dems gaining three, all at the expense of the Tories, who lose 25 of the 65 seats they currently hold.

With a general election looming in 2024, ITV News Anglia takes a look at the most notable predicted results - and you can use our interactive map below to find out the prediction for where you live.

  • Ministers ousted

When the music stops at the 2024 General Election, some big names could be left without a seat.

In the East of England, two Tory cabinet ministers are predicted to lose: Defence Secretary Grant Shapps to Labour in Welwyn Hatfield, and Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer in the redrawn constituency of Ely and East Cambridgeshire, which will be taken by the Lib Dems.

  • Ex-PM under threat?

They are the most likely to offer up the 2024 version of a Portillo moment for the East of England, but there is also potential in South West Norfolk, where Liz Truss will be defending her majority.

Although the YouGov poll shows her holding the seat, it also predicts a significant vote for the Reform Party which, if it increases, could draw votes away from Britain's shortest-serving prime minister.

Former PM Liz Truss is projected to retain her seat - but there are threats. Credit: PA
  • See-saw seats see red

Traditional see-saw seats across the region swing back towards Labour, in the projected results.

Peterborough, which has been won four times by the Conservatives and three times by Labour since 2000, is predicted to go red again this year, as is the Waveney seat in Suffolk, which has been renamed Lowestoft in the boundary review and has not gone to Labour since 2005.

Other close-run seats in recent elections, such as Norwich North and Ipswich are also slated to go to Labour.

Corby and Kettering and East Northamptonshire are expected to go Labour, along with Northampton North and Northampton South, a swathe of seats around the Buckinghamshire-Bedfordshire border, including Aylesbury, Buckingham and Bletchley, Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard, Luton and South Bedfordshire, as well as Milton Keynes South and Milton Keynes Central.

  • Lib Dem make gains

The Liberal Democrats have had a torrid time in the past few elections in the wake of the coalition government, but stand to make some gains in the projected 2024 poll with at least four members in Parliament in the Anglia region.

The South Cambridgeshire seat currently held by the Conservatives is set to go to the Lib Dems, as will the newly-created constituency of Ely and East Cambridgeshire, where Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer is predicted to lose.

The party will hold St Albans, where Daisy Cooper has been the MP since 2019, and also gain neighbouring Harpenden & Berkhampsted.

  • Labour inroads in Essex

Southend in Essex has long been a stronghold for the Conservatives but the 2024 election promises to deliver change across the region.

The two constituencies in the new city - Southend West and Leigh, and Southend East and Rochford - will both go to Labour, according to the YouGov poll.

Neither has fallen out of Conservative control since the war, underlining the scale of the collapse of support for Rishi Sunak's party that is laid bare in the poll findings.

The prime minister visited the city on Monday where he met the Southend West MP Anna Firth, and the pair were heckled by onlookers as they walked on the seafront.

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