Scale of the SNP's assumed victory depends on D'Hondt

Photo: PA

It's all over bar the d'Hondt calculations.

Not a sentence I ever thought I'd write.

But there you are, it's an election, and an election with a more proportional voting system.

Victor D'Hondt was a Belgian mathematician who is credited with inventing the system used for Holyrood voting.

Under the Holyrood system 73 MSPs are elected first-past-the-post and the remaining 56 by the proportional system named after said Belgian.

Why is it important? Well if a party loses a lot of first-past-the-post seat but in the second vote had decent support it will gain some MSPs.

Now, there appears to be a trend emerging from the first-past-the-post seats.

The SNP appears to be well ahead, and winning some Labour seats. It looks like the Tories may be winning some constituency seats and probably are going to relegate Labour to third place.

However, if the SNP is not winning all the first-past-the-post seats they will hope to pick up some off the list.

And the rub there is that we do not yet known how the regional lists are going.

The polls before the election suggested the SNP's support was not as high on the 'second vote' and the Greens may do well there.

So, the scale of the SNP's assumed victory will depend on d'Hondt, and also the other parties fate depend on those list results.

Actually it's not really all over, not completely, as we still have very few results, but there are these patterns emerging.

So if it takes a little while yet - quite a while in fact - before we have a final result you can blame that not so famous Belgian.

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