Think tank: Hull and Bradford among cities likely to face longer-lasting damage from coronavirus recession

Humber Bridge near Hull Credit: Press Association

Hull and Bradford are among cities which may face longer-lasting economic damage from the coronavirus lockdown, a leading think tank has warned.

The cross-party Social Market Foundation (SMF) says that the UK faces a "sluggish" recovery after the severe economic impact of the lockdown.

Its analysis suggests that banking and financial services face a severe impact, with construction also badly-hit over the period 2020-23.

Other industries, including transport, manufacturing, hospitality and other services are assessed as facing a "moderate" impact over the medium term.

Hull and Bradford are on a list of cities which already have a high level of unemployment.

The places that face the greatest impact from the downturn are largely in the more affluent South East and London.< "However, an area's recovery from disruption will depend on local resilience and pre-crisis levels of economic output and employment.

The SMF report

The 10 places listed with "most to fear" from the downturn are:

  • Hull

  • Bradford

  • Walsall

  • Manchester

  • Peterborough

  • Lambeth

  • Thurrock

  • Brent

  • Redbridge and Waltham Forest

  • Sandwell.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks through a large bore pipe during a visit to the Siemens Rail factory construction site in Goole Credit: Peter Byrne/PA

The analysis was released as Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Goole, East Yorkshire, to champion the Government's efforts to protect England's economy through thousands of unpaid traineeships for those aged 18-24.

The SMF said forecasters predicted unemployment could increase by 1.5 million due to the crisis, leaving a total of around 2.9 million out of work.

"The consensus of recent forecasts suggests that unemployment will not recover to previous levels until after 2023," the report said.

The report suggested that areas with jobs in lots of badly-hit sectors may face more difficulties in recovering than areas of London, for instance, which had a reliance on banking and financial services.

In Hull, the pre-crisis unemployment rate was 7.6% - double the national average - and nearly three quarters of workers are in sectors facing a moderate or severe impact, including 21,200 jobs in manufacturing, 13,800 in banking and financial services, 26,700 in distribution, hotels and restaurants and 7,800 in construction.