EXCLUSIVE: Polls suggest no runaway leader in race to become Labour Metro Mayor candidate

The three Labour candidates to be Mayor of Liverpool City Region Credit: ITV Granada

With just two weeks to go until the Labour Party selects its candidate for Mayor of the Liverpool City Region, I've been shown three separate sets of polling data conducted over the last two weeks.

Looking at the numbers, all gathered through phone conversations from Labour members in the six boroughs of the City Region, Joe Anderson will likely be the happiest of the three candidates. The current Mayor of Liverpool comes out on top in two, and a close second in a third.

Steve Rotheram, the MP for Liverpool Walton, leads one poll but finishes last behind Luciana Berger the others.

The MP for Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger is second in two polls, and third in another.

POLL ONE (phone conversations from July 12-14th . Sample 407):

  • Steve Rotheram 30%

  • Joe Anderson 22%

  • Luciana Berger 15%

  • Dont Know 22%

  • Not voting 12%

POLL TWO (phone conversations from July 11th-21st. Sample 1,115):

  • Joe Anderson 40%,

  • Luciana Berger 36%,

  • Steve Rotheram 24%

  • (Don't Knows not counted in final numbers)

POLL THREE (phone conversations from July 11-17th. Sample 1,998):

  • Joe Anderson 34%,

  • Luciana Berger 16%,

  • Steve Rotheram 12%,

  • Undecided 27%

  • Won't Say 7%

These are not polls conducted by ITV but by those involved in the campaigns to elect Labour's mayoral candidate. Of course, the usual disclaimers apply here, these are three polls, and polls have hardly been the most trustworthy of tools of late.

But it's worth noting a few to things.

Firstly, the candidate is only being elected by Labour members in the six boroughs of Liverpool, Halton, St Helens, Sefton, Knowsley and Wirral. That's only around 7,000 or so people. So polls with samples of 1000-2000 are a decent chunk of the electorate.

Secondly, the number of 'Undecideds', 'Don't Knows' and 'Won't Says' is considerable. One poll shows almost half of members are either yet to make up their mind or won't say, and that gives hope to all three candidates that there is still plenty to play .

Thirdly, what is most obvious from these numbers, is that there appears to be no runaway leader in this contest. No poll shows a candidate polling above 50% of first preference votes, meaning it is likely to go to second preferences, and the dynamics at play there are anyone's guess.

Voting closes on August 6th, and the result will be announced on August 9th. The Mayoral election takes place in May 2017.