EXCLUSIVE: Two campaign polls put Burnham ahead in race to become Mayor

Three candidates for Greater Manchester Mayor

By: Political Correspondent, Daniel Hewitt

The Leigh MP Andy Burnham appears to have the edge in the race to become Greater Manchester mayor, according to polling data seen by Granada Reports.

But with just 8 days to go for Labour members to cast their vote, the polls also show as many as 1 in 3 have yet to decide who to vote for.

The daaa was not collected by ITV News or by an independent professional polling company but by two of the three candidates campaign teams.

One poll conducted by one campaign team contacted members by phone, email and text, put Andy Burnham on 55% (see below).

A second poll conducted by another team, which contacted more than 7000 members, used phone calls to gather responses and puts the contest much closer, with Mr Burnham still narrowly ahead of his fellow candidates Ivan Lewis MP and Police and Crime Commissioner Tony Lloyd, but way behind the number of undecided voters on 37.6%.

POLL ONE: Sample 6,111 (51 % phone calls, 29% email responses 20% text messages):

  • Andy Burnham 55%

  • Tony Lloyd 33%

  • Ivan Lewis 12%

Note: Undecided voters redistributed based on second round of contact with previously undecided voters who've now formally identified voting intention and/or cast their vote

  • (Andy Burnham 38%,

  • Tony Lloyd 33%,

  • Ivan Lewis 29%).

Promise rates weighted by age, constituency and gender.

POLL TWO: Sample 7220 (99.5% phone call conversations):

  • Undecided 37.6%

  • Andy Burnham 21.7%

  • Ivan Lewis 20.6%

  • Tony Lloyd 20.1%

Around 11,400 Labour members are eligible to vote in the contest.

Data from both polls show a large number of members have yet to decide how to vote, and all three campaign teams have commented on the amount of people who didn't even know Labour was selecting it's mayoral candidate on August 9th.

This had been put down to a flurry of political activity in the lead up the vote, with local elections in May followed by the EU Referendum and now a Labour leadership contest.

However, with samples as large as 7000 in a contest with 11,400 voters, those conducting the polls have expressed confidence in the accuracy of their findings.

A spokesperson for Andy Burnham's campaign said they were "encouraged" by the figures.

"Having entered the contest after the other two candidates, Andy has quickly made up ground and all the evidence shows he is now ahead.

However, we are not complacent and Andy is continuing to meet members across Greater Manchester and is fighting for every vote.", they said.

"We are encouraged by news that those members who had previously been undecided are now breaking in favour of Andy.

"An Ivan Lewis campaign spokesperson said the race will now come down to the decision of a "large number of undecided voters of the the coming week."

"These polls shows that there is no runaway leader in this race.

The decision on who will become the Labour Candidate for Greater Manchester Mayor in crucial to the future of the Labour Party in Greater Manchester.

We need a candidate rooted in the area who has a history of winning for Labour against the odds."

The interim Mayor of Greater Manchester Tony Lloyd remains "confident" he is in poll position to win the contest.

"The only poll that matters now is the vote of Labour members.

I am confident that my supporters are turning out and confident that I will be the mayoral candidate for Labour and in turn the first elected mayor of Greater Manchester."