Advertisement

  1. ITV Report

The Met Office forecast near record breaking warmth for 2019

The Met Office today released their global temperature forecast for 2019, which suggests it will be close to record warmth, due to climate change and the added effect of a moderate 'El Niño' in the Pacific.

The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2019 to be between 0.98°C and 1.22°C, 1.10°C, above the pre-industrial average period from 1850-1900.

At present 2016 is the warmest year on record, since record began in 1850.

Modest warming from El Niño combined with much larger effects due to rising levels of greenhouse gases are driving the 2019 temperature forecast.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

“Our forecasts suggest that by the end of 2019, 19 of the 20 warmest years on record will have occurred since the year 2000.”

– Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Global Mean Temperature Difference from 1850-1900 (ºC) Credit: Met Office

WHAT IS EL NINO?

El Niño and La Niña are terms which describe the biggest fluctuation in the Earth's climate system and can have consequences across the globe. The fluctuation sees changes in the sea-surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean which occur every few years.

These events are due to strong and extensive interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. They are associated with widespread changes in the climate system that last several months, and can lead to significant human impacts affecting things such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy sectors.

The name 'El Niño' nowadays is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific.

The Met Office explains ~~> here