Temperature records broken again but why is the weather warmer than usual?

Fuschias in November
Fuschias in November Credit: Colin Lennox-Gordon

Still leaving the coat at home? You're not alone. So far 2022 has recorded above average temperatures every month and we've just come through the 4th warmest October on record for England, the 7th warmest for the UK as a whole.

So far, November is following the trend. Yet more records were toppled overnight up and down the UK, giving us the warmest 10th November night on record. Temperatures didn't dip below 15.3 Celsius at Myerscough in Lancashire, easily eclipsing the previous record set back in 1977 when Eastbourne hovered at 14.1 Celsius. No wonder the trees are blossoming!

Jet stream and temperatures Credit: Met Office

But why is it so unseasonably mild?

It's all down to the much-talked about jet stream, that fast-moving ribbon of air way up in our atmosphere and it's the movement of this that drives our weather.

At this time of year we'd usually expect the jet stream to sit to the south of us, putting us comfortably in the colder air to the north of it and bringing our temperatures down. However, it's taken on a very buckled shape and can currently be found diving southwards over the Atlantic before streaming back northwards towards us, bringing mild air up from much further south. For parts of the south and southeast this air is warmed further as it crosses the Iberian Peninsula on it's way to us.

Cherry blossom in November Credit: Roy Venkatesh

Surely it'll get cold eventually?

There are some changes on the horizon with the jet stream set to take on a more west-to-east pattern as we start the new week. This will cut off the feed of exceptionally mild air from the south but westerly winds still tend to bring fairly temperate conditions at this time of year so if, like me, you're craving a crisp and frosty morning then you may have to wait a little longer. Inevitably over the next couple of months as the nights get longer and the sun gets weaker we will see temperatures falling away so don't abandon those coats just yet...