Osborne: Brexit will leave Britain permanently poorer

Quitting the European Union would leave households £4,300 a year worse off, George Osborne warned as he prepared to release in-depth Treasury analysis on the cost of Brexit.

Britain's economy would shrink by 6% by 2030 if the country replicated Canada's trading agreements as advocated by Boris Johnson, according to the Chancellor.

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Osborne's Brexit costs: do the figures add up?

Video report by ITV News Business Editor Joel Hills.

George Osborne has warned that every family will lose thousands as a result of a vote to leave the EU - but where do those figures come from and do the calculations make sense?

In every scenario envisaged by the report, trade, investment and national productivity all fall as a result of a Brexit.

Professor Anand Menon, from UK in Changing Europe, said that the government had tended to look at the "worse case scenario".

"It is biased in the sense that it doesn't show a range of possible outcomes," he said.

But although the government's analysis may be pessimistic, it is not unique in it's gloomy outlook.

The majority of reports into a possible Brexit have found that the most likely outcome will be negative economically.

Osborne warns that Brexit will cost £4,300 per household

Video report by ITV News Deputy Political Editor Chris Ship.

George Osborne has today produced figures suggesting that every family could be thousands of pounds worse off outside of the EU.

The data, backed by the treasury research team, suggests that a vote to leave could cost £4,300 per household every year by 2030.

Under any alternative we'd trade less, we'd do less business, there would be less investment and the price would be paid by British families - wages would be lower, prices would be higher.

– George Osborne

The figures were based on a trade deal with the EU similar to the one struck by Canada - and which has been praised by pro-Brexit rebel Boris Johnson.

The London Mayor was among those who dismissed the chancellor's figures as unreliable and incorrect.

"We've got a great future ahead of us," he said in response.


Remain in EU, says National Farmers' Union

Credit: Reuters

The National Farmers' Union (NFU) has voted that farmers' interests are best served by remaining in the EU.

A resolution passed by the organisation's council said the decision was made "on the balance of existing evidence available to us at present".

Meurig Raymond, president of the NFU, said a survey of members suggests 20% support Brexit, while 35% to 50% support remaining within the EU. The rest have not made up their minds.

The NFU, which represents farmers across England and Wales, said it would not tell its 55,000 members how to vote in the June 23 referendum, and will not be actively campaigning.

Osborne defends 'impartial' Treasury analysis on EU

Mr Osborne said the report was clear there were costs and benefits of being part of the EU Credit: ITV News

George Osborne has defended the Treasury's report on the cost to the country of leaving the EU as an impartial analysis of the cost of Brexit.

He said the report was clear there were costs and benefits of being part of the EU, but that its analysis the UK was better off remaining in the EU was shared by international institutions like the OECD and companies of all sizes.

Mr Osborne was responding to a question by ITV News' Deputy Political Editor Chris Ship.

The government's official position is that Britain should remain in the EU, but the Conservative party is split on the issue and a number of ministers are campaigning in favour of the leave campaign.

Ministers join chancellor to outline cost of leaving EU

Liz Truss (left), Amber Rudd (second from right) and Stephen Crabb (right) joined the chancellor Credit: ITV News

Ministers have joined George Osborne to outline what the Chancellor has called the Treasury's "sober and serious" analysis of the cost tot he UK of leaving the EU

Alongside the chancellor, Liz Truss, the environment secretary, spoke about adopting a Norwegian model relationship with the EU; Work and Pensions Secretary Stephen Crabb spoke about adopting a WTO model; and Energy Secretary Amber Rudd spoke on a Canadian style relationship.

According to the Treasury analysis outlined by the ministers:

  • GDP would be 4% lower under a Norwegian-style relationship
  • GDP would be 7.5% lower under a WTO model
  • GDP would be 6% lower under a Canadian-style relationship


LIVE: Osborne speaks on 'cost to UK families' of Brexit

  • This event is now over

Chancellor George Osborne and other ministers are speaking on the economic consequences to the UK of pulling out of the EU.

Their comments come ahead of the release of Treasury report that warns British families could eventually be £4,300 a year worse off if the UK models its relationship with Brussels on a Canadian-style trade agreement.

Speaking alongside Osborne are Liz Truss, the environment secretary, and Stephen Crabb, the work and pensions secretary.

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