'Brexit would plunge Britain into year-long recession'

Leaving the European Union would plunge Britain into a year-long recession with at least 500,000 jobs lost, according to Treasury analysis announced by the prime minister and chancellor.

George Osborne has warned that the country would suffer an "immediate and profound" economic shock if it voted in favour of Brexit.

The Treasury analysis has been released ahead of the referendum in one month's time.

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In numbers: Treasury's analysis of the immediate impact of Brexit

Between 500,000 and 820,000 jobs could be lost if Britain votes to leave the EU, new Treasury analysis has forecast.

The analysis also says the economy could shrink by as much as 6% in the two years after a Brexit vote.

The Treasury forecasts are based on two models:

  • A 'shock' scenario, which the Treasury says uses cautious assumptions and links the size of the transition effect to the central estimate of the UK adopting a negotiated bilateral agreement with the EU
  • A 'severe shock' scenario, which is linked to the estimate of Britain leaving the Single Market and defaulting to membership of the World Trade Organisation.

These are the key figures released by the Treasury based on the two scenarios:

Credit: Treasury

IDS: 'Government ignoring chaos and crisis EU brings'

Credit: Good Morning Britain

Iain Duncan Smith accused the Government of getting the Treasury to look at the "very worst possibilities" economically if the UK left the EU.

The former Tory leader's warning comes after the Treasury predicted the country would suffer an "immediate and profound" economic shock if it voted in favour of Brexit on June 23.

Duncan Smith told ITV's Good Morning Britain said there were a "number of economists" who didn't agree with the report.

He added that Government supported remaining in the EU and that it had got the Treasury "to look at the very worst possibilities that could happen".

Duncan Smith said that none of the pro-Remain Government reports mentioned the "chaos and crisis that the euro area is bringing".


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