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Public sector employment 'to fall by 1.2 million by 2018'

The IFS has predicted that public sector employment will fall by 1.2 million by 2017-2018, should the current spending cuts continue. This figure is higher than previously predicted:

Departments are planning to cut pay bills quicker than other forms of spending and so far they are doing it through reducing employment much more than through real pay cuts.

This means that public sector jobs look likely to be cut faster than implied by Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts. If departments continue to cut their pay bills beyond 2014-15 at the rate they are currently planning then public sector employment would fall by 1.2 million by 2017-8, rather than by 900,000 as the OBR forecasts.


Public service spending 'could fall by a third' by 2018

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has released its Green Budget, outlining the impact of the government's budget plans in the coming years.

Based on its analysis, public service spending in "unprotected" Whitehall departments (health, schools and overseas budget are "protected") could fall by a third between 2010-2011 and 2017-2018. This figure could even reach 35%:

Current spending plans imply an average cut in public service spending of one third across unprotected Whitehall departments, i.e. all excluding health, schools and overseas aid, by 2017–18. If the defence equipment budget were to be added to the list of protected areas then spending in unprotected areas would need to fall by around 35%.

IFS: 'Benefit cap will affect working people and those out of work'

Robert Joyce, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has told ITV News that the 1% benefits cut will affect both those who work and those who do not.

He added that although there will be a greater proportion of people who do not work affected by the cap, the fact that the cuts will hit both those in and those out of work will mean that, "the impact on people's incentive to move in to work will be somewhat mixed."

And that for some people the cuts will mean they are better off out of work.

TUC: IFS report shows Osborne 'failing on all counts'

Commenting on the Institute for Fiscal Studies' report that the "era of austerity" could last until 2018, the TUC claimed it shows Chancellor George Osborne's economic strategy is "failing on all counts".

TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber said:

The UK should be on the road to recovery by now. Instead we could be set for a prolonged period of debilitating austerity well beyond the next election.

The Chancellor should use his Autumn Statement next week to change course. Sadly he looks set to drive the economy even faster in the wrong direction.


IFS: UK's economic outlook has 'disappointed'

Deputy Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Carl Emmerson said that since the last Budget, the UK's economic outlook has "deteriorated" and Government receipts have "disappointed".

Mr Emmerson suggests that as a result, Chancellor George Osborne might find himself having to "abandon" one of his fiscal targets.

If much of the additional weakness this year feeds into a permanently higher outlook for borrowing, then in order to comply with his other fiscal target Mr Osborne would need to announce yet more tax rises or spending cuts for the next parliament in next week's Autumn Statement.

In that case the planned era of austerity could run for eight years - from 2010/11 to 2017/18.

– IFS Deputy Director Carl Emmerson

IFS warns era of austerity 'could last until 2018'

A well respected economic think tank has warned that the "era of austerity" could last until 2018 as the Chancellor is forced to extend spending cuts still further into the next Parliament.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said in a report that George Osborne may have to extend the current squeeze on public spending to 2017/18 and find another £11 billion from cuts or tax rises on top of the further £8 billion reduction in welfare spending already discussed.

Chancellor George Osborne will make his Autumn Statement next week Credit: PA Wire

Under the think tank's "relatively pessimistic" scenario for Britain's economic future - which sees the recent deterioration in growth prospects and tax receipts turn out to be permanent - Mr Osborne will be forced to announce even more bad news in order to meet his "fiscal mandate".

The report comes ahead of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement next week, and the IFS predicts that he is set to miss his other fiscal target - for the national debt to come down in 2015/16.

However, its analysis does not take into consideration the recent change to the way the Government finances interest payments on debt from the Bank of England's gilt purchases, which is expected to make the so-called supplementary fiscal target easier to meet.

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