The potentially devastating long-term economic impact of a ‘no deal’ Brexit on the North East has been laid bare in fresh analysis of government figures by the Confederation of Business Industry.

The study reveals how the North East could be among the regions most exposed to the economic fallout from leaving the EU without a deal with an estimated annual loss of output worth £7 billion1 by 2034.

Such a significant shortfall would hit people’s jobs, livelihoods and living standards. This figure is equivalent to twice the annual public spending on schools and education in the North East.

Nissan manufacturing plant in Sunderland Credit: ITV Tyne Tees

Manufacturing activity is particularly important to the North East, and the automotive sector, which employs tens of thousands, is likely to be severely impacted as it is particularly exposed to the risk of higher tariffs and trade costs.

With 59% of the North East’s goods exports going to the EU, any increased trade friction, added costs or delays would hit the region particularly hard.

Mike Norris, Managing Director of North East employer Draeger UK, said:

As a global leader in the manufacturing of medical and safety products, Draeger imports supplies from Europe on a daily basis, with as little as 24 hours’ notice.

Mike Norris, Draeger UK
Ensus fuel plant at Wilton near Redcar Credit: ITV Tyne Tees

Sarah Glendinning, Regional Director for CBI North East, said:

CBI members across the region are clear: if the new approach to finding a Brexit deal continues to be a game of who blinks first, the North East economy will pay the price.

Sarah Glendinning, CBI North East
Prime Minister Theresa May brought her Cabinet to the North East in July 2018 Credit: ITV Tyne Tees