Scottish nationalists have severely underestimated the economic risks of independence, according to a centre-right think tank.
An independent Scotland would face three major risks in oil, finance and pensions, the Centre for Policy Studies said.
Its report, entitled Why Scots Should Say No, suggests that the North Sea revenue for the Scottish government would fall from £10.1 billion in 2011-12, but only £5.5bn in 2013-14, to £3.7bn in 2016-17, some £3.2 billion adrift of the £6.9 billion predicted by the Yes campaign.
The "probable" flight of a large proportion of the financial services sector from Scotland, as indicated by announcement by RBS, Lloyds, Clydesdale and Standard Life last week, could leave revenues of £47.7 billion in 2016-17, excluding North Sea oil, which is about £9.2 billion lower than the £57.3 billion forecast by nationalists, the report said.
One story dominates Thursday's front pages with some newspapers printing emotive pleas to voters to keep the United Kingdom as one.
In Edinburgh tonight you can hear it and feel it. The buzz, the banter of the day and the thrilling sense something big is coming tomorrow.
There is nervousness, anxiety and on the streets of Edinburgh fuelled by an atmosphere unlike anything seen before in recent UK politics.