New polls ahead of Northern Ireland Assembly election show race tightening

A ballot box ready before South Belfast Polling Station opened for voting in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections.
Picture by: Liam McBurney/PA Archive/PA Images
The election takes place on Thursday 5 May

Two new polls released on Friday show the Assembly election race is tightening as campaigning enters the final week.

Both are predicting the DUP and Sinn Féin will lose votes from their 2017 totals.

A Survation poll for Good Morning Britain showed Sinn Féin still on course to take the first minister's position, but their projected 22.2% first preference vote share is a 5% drop from 2017.

The DUP has narrowed the gap with Sinn Féin after previous polls showed a decline in its support.

Survation has the party on 20.2%. This would place them second behind Sinn Féin, but on a better seat count than was predicted during the leadership turmoil in the summer of 2021.

The results of the Survation poll undertaken for GMB

Elsewhere in the race Survation show the Alliance Party taking the third spot for the first time, with a 5% bump to 14.1% of first preference votes.

The UUP and SDLP sit on 10.9% and 13.3% respectively.

The TUV haven't been able to take advantage of the uncertainty in unionism in this poll, with a 6.5% showing.

People before Profit are predicted to take 3.2% of the vote according to Survation.

The Survation poll has a margin of error of 4.32%. This means that the DUP could be ahead of Sinn Féin given expected levels of error.

Equally, the party could be further behind than the 2% currently seen. Polling is only ever a snapshot, but it can be an indicative one.

A separate poll carried out by LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph the distance between the two big parties is narrowing.

Lucid Talk places Sinn Féin on 26% and the DUP on 20% vote share.That poll has the UUP and Alliance in joint position on 14%.

This poll also rates the TUV's chances higher, having them on 9%. The Greens and PBP are on 3% and 2% respectively.