Shock poll puts Tories ahead in Wales for historic win
The Conservatives appear to be on course to win the majority of Welsh parliamentary seats for the first time in more than 100 years according to an exclusive poll carried out for ITV Cymru Wales News.
The snapshot of voting intentions also puts Labour as losing a general election in Wales for the first time since 1918.
The shock findings come from the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll – the first opinion poll to be conducted in Wales since Theresa May called the snap general election.
Our new poll asked how people would vote in a general election for the House of Commons.
Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats are projected, by this poll, to hold the seats they currently have but make no gains.
Sensationally, however, a full ten seats are projected to be gained by the Conservatives from Labour. Those seats are:
Alyn & Deeside
Cardiff South & Penarth
The poll was conducted on Wednesday to Friday last week, after Theresa May announced her intention to seek approval for an election from parliament.
These are the astonishing voting intention figures that our poll produced:
More: 'Sensational' poll suggests Tories could end Labour majority in Wales says Prof Roger Scully
The huge leap in the Tory rating since our last poll has come mostly at the expense of UKIP.
The headline figures in our poll seem to reflect a direct move by many former UKIP supporters into the Conservative ranks: very nearly two-thirds of all our respondents who voted UKIP in the 2015 general election now say that they intend to support the Tories.
Theresa May’s gamble of seeking a mandate for Brexit from the British people appears to have particular appeal to many of these voters.
While UKIP seem to be on the slide in Wales, the other parties are stagnant.
More: Tories in the lead in Wales - should you believe our poll?