It's been clear for sometime that the Prime Minister will have an uphill task getting the kind of Brexit deal she wants approved by Parliament. Now an exclusive poll for ITV Cymru Wales suggests that most Welsh voters won't thank MPs who back Theresa May if she does succeed in reaching an agreement with the European Union. Here's how people said they'd vote in a referendum with three options.
- Remain a member of the EU: 51%
- Leave the EU without a deal: 30%
- Leave the EU accepting a deal: 20%
Welsh voters remain almost evenly split between those who'd like to stay in the EU and those who want to leave but it appears that most of us view a deal as the worst of both worlds.
Conservative party supporters don't think Theresa May is on the right track either. Of those who say they'd vote Tory in a Westminster election, 54% would prefer to leave without a deal. 30% would take the deal and just 16% want to stay in the EU.
One of the Prime Minister's main concerns in seeking a deal is to avoid putting the peace process in Northern Ireland at risk by creating a hard border with the Irish Republic. She's also been warned by Scottish Conservatives that a special arrangement for Northern Ireland -the backstop demanded by the EU if there's no deal- would increase the chances of Scotland voting for independence from the UK.
In the poll, 72% of Conservative voters said "taking back control" is worth unravelling the peace process in Northern Ireland -and 80% said it's worth having Scots vote to leave the UK. However, it's not known to what extent they gave those answers because they simply don't accept that the risks which so concern Theresa May are real, rather than just part of "project fear", designed to make them accept a softer Brexit than they'd like to see happen.