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  1. ITV Report

Poll shows Welsh voters prefer May's Brexit deal to leaving EU without a deal

The latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales suggests that Welsh voters are now more likely to vote remain if there was another EU referendum. But if the only choice is the Prime Minister's Brexit deal or leaving the EU without a deal, there's strong support for accepting what Theresa May has negotiated with Brussels.

Excluding people who replied "don't know" or said that they would not vote, the results were as follows:

  • HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN ANOTHER EU REFERENDUM?
  • Remain 55%
  • Leave 45%
  • IF THIS WAS THE ONLY CHOICE, WHICH WOULD YOU PREFER?
  • Accepting the draft Brexit deal 62%
  • Leaving the EU without a deal 38%

It seems that people are either worried by the prospect of a no deal Brexit or simply fed up with the whole process. There isn't much actual enthusiasm for the deal the Prime Minister has secured.

  • DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE DRAFT BREXIT DEAL?
  • Support 22%
  • Oppose 43%
  • Don't know 34%

The Prime Minister has also received a warning from a Welsh MP who has been a strong supporter for getting the Prime Minister's deal over the line. Simon Hart, who's MP for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire, chairs the Brexit Delivery Group of Conservative MPs. He and his co-chair, Andrew Percy, have written to the Government Chief Whip calling for free vote of MPs on a cross-party plan to rule out no deal and delay Brexit beyond March 29.

The reputation for competence of both the party and the Government depends on our ability to deliver an orderly exit, in line with the existing timescale.

Whilst we fully expect some changes to the backstop arrangements to be made by ministers in Brussels this week, there remains a chance that these will not satisfy some colleagues.

Numerous members of our group have alerted us to their intention (should rejection of the deal look likely) to get behind amendments that are planned in the name of Oliver Letwin and others and which will have the twin effect of taking no deal off the table and delaying Brexit.

– Simon Hart MP and Andrew Percy MP

It's a sign that many Conservative MPs who've been supporting the Prime Minister feel it's time that they were listened to at least as much as the party's hardline Brexiteers.

  • YouGov polled 1,025 adults for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University between 19 and 22 February.