Labour are on course to lose five Welsh seats in a General Election according to an exclusive new poll for ITV Wales.
Our new poll asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the Assembly. The findings suggest Labour could lose five Welsh MPs and a further five Assembly Members.
Labour support stands at 35%, according to the findings, a drop in eight points from December. That gives Labour in Westminster the lowest levels of support since May 2017.
Although their support is only down a couple of points, the poll also gives the lowest level of Conservative Westminster support in Wales since January 2017.
The single point gain for Plaid Cymru support in Westminster represents their best showing since July 2016.
In a statement, the party called it "another significant step forward".
There were gains for the other remaining parties according to the poll findings too. The Liberal Democrats gained two point, UKIP three, and the other parties four points in total.
Using the poll figures to predict electoral results, the findings suggest that Labour could lose five seats in the next General Election. Cardiff North, Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham all projected to be gained by the Conservatives, and Ynys Mon by Plaid Cymru.
That would leave the political outlook significantly different:
YouGov once again asked about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional list ballots in a devolved election. The results show Labour, again, face a substantial fall - their lowest level for this ballot in any poll since April 2017.
Conservative support remains solid, while Plaid Cymru edge up – once more to their highest level in any Barometer poll since July 2016.
Using the assumption of uniform national swings since the last election, this poll would project seven constituencies to change hands - all of themcurrently held by Labour.
The Conservatives are projected to gain:
Vale of Clwyd
Vale of Glamorgan
Plaid Cymru are projected to pick up Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff West and Llanelli. Labour’s projected twenty constituency seats would be by far their worst performance at a National Assembly election.
For the regional list vote for the National Assembly, YouGov generated the following results - with changes from December’s Barometer poll in brackets:
Labour: 29% (-7)
Conservatives: 24% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 23% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+2)
UKIP: 6% (+2)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Abolish the Assembly: 4% (-1)
Others: 4% (+2)
These results appear to confirm the sharp fall in Labour support, and a more modest uptick in Plaid Cymru’s ratings. Our new poll also suggests that Liberal Democrat and UKIP support may have edged up a little.
The findings project the overall results for the Assembly's regional list seats as the following:
North Wales: 2 Plaid, 1 Labour, 1 UKIP
Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Conservative
South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid
South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib-Dem
South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP
Now it appears that the remarkable stability that has characterised the polls since June 2017 has broken.
Labour have suffered most: their very public splits last week may well have contributed to what is a considerable drop in their support. As ever in Welsh politics, though, Labour’s saving grace is the lack of a single strong challenger – their decline has been distributed across several other parties.
The poll figures give an outlook of 23 seats for Labour in the National Assembly. Still a way ahead of the 17 Conservative seats projected by the findings.
Plaid Cymru could expect 16 seats according to the poll, with 2 seats a piece for the Liberal Democrats and UKIP.
Although this poll offers some good news for several others parties, all of them have a considerable way to go before they can offer a serious threat to Labour’s dominance in Wales.
YouGov interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,025 adults in Wales online between 19-22 February 2019.
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