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  1. ITV Report

Poll puts Brexit Party on course for 23% of Westminster election vote but no MPs

A quarter of the vote would still be enough to secure Labour the lion's share of Welsh MPs but the Brexit Party could end up with none.

With the Brexit Party storming ahead in the European election campaign, the latest ITV poll also looked at how people say they would vote in other elections. It seems that Nigel Farage's new party would do very well though not secure the triumph that looks likely in this week's Euro-vote.

  • Labour 25%
  • Brexit Party 23%
  • Conservatives 17%
  • Plaid Cymru 13%
  • Liberal Democrats 12%
  • Green Party 5%
  • Change UK 2%
  • UKIP 1%
  • Others 2%

Unlike the proportional representation used in European elections, a Westminster election is fought under the first-past-the-post system, which makes it difficult for challenger parties to break through. In fact, if the Brexit Party's vote is spread evenly, it could gain no Welsh seats at all at Westminster, with other parties benefitting from the drop in Labour support -and Labour still holding more than half the Welsh seats, even with the support of just a quarter of all voters.

On a uniform swing across all Welsh seats, the result would be as follows (with changes on the 2017 result in brackets):

  • Labour 25 (-3)
  • Conservatives 9 (+1)
  • Plaid Cymru 4 (no change)
  • Liberal Democrats 2 (+2)

Westminster seats would change hands as follows:

  • Wrexham -Labour to Conservative
  • Vale of Clwyd -Labour to Conservative
  • Brecon and Radnorshire Conservative to Liberal Democrat
  • Ceredigion Plaid Cymru to Liberal Democrat
  • Ynys Mon Labour to Plaid Cymru

Where the Brexit Party could certainly expect to pick up seats is in an Assembly election, although its support in the constituency contest is lower than for Westminster:

  • Labour 25%
  • Plaid Cymru 24%
  • Brexit Party 17%
  • Conservatives 17%
  • Liberal Democrats 9%
  • Green Party 5%
  • Others 3%

The spread of support is rather different when voters are asked how they would cast their regional list votes:

  • Brexit Party 23%
  • Plaid Cymru 22%
  • Labour 21%
  • Conservatives 12%
  • Green Party 8%
  • Liberal Democrat 7%
  • Others 7%

That level of support would deliver a group of AMs considerably bigger than the four-member team that's just been formed in the Senedd. These figures are good news for Plaid Cymru as well, both in terms of the level of support and in terms of the party's narrative that it's a credible challenger to Labour and that a clear position of wanting to remain in the European Union is required when fighting the Brexit Party.

The dramatic decline in support for the Labour and Conservative parties must put into question not just Theresa May's position -she's already said she's about to stand down- but Jeremy Corbyn's as well. In fact more Welsh voters think he should go than support the Prime Minister's decision to quit.

  • Corbyn should remain Labour leader 22%
  • Corbyn should stand down as leader 57%
  • Don't know 21%
  • May should remain Prime Minister 30%
  • May should stand down as PM 52%
  • Don't know 18%

Looming large in all these poll results is the Brexit impasse. 44% blame Theresa May and her government, 36% blame MPs. Only 6% blame the European Union and the governments of the other EU members, 15% dont know.