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Boris Johnson on course for election win with Welsh voters, poll suggests

The poll shows a swing to the Conservatives that would give Boris Johnson 17 Welsh Tory MPs Credit: PA Images

The Conservative party can hope for significant gains in Wales if there is a general election in the near future, a poll has shown.

The latest Welsh Barometer opinion poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University shows a Tory lead by four percentage points over Labour.

That support has grown since July's poll which showed a narrow Tory lead by two points.

If the swing affected all Welsh seats equally, the Conservatives could expect to win 17 constituencies in Wales.

They include Brecon & Radnorshire, which was lost to the Liberal Democrats in a by-election in August, as well as Newport West, where Labour held on earlier this year.

The Tories could also expect to win five seats in north-east Wales, including Clwyd South, where Boris Johnson was defeated when he stood there in 1997.

The Conservatives' four point lead suggests that they're on track for big gains in Wales in a Westminster election

With an early general election still appearing a strong possibility, how do the parties stand in terms of Westminster support? This is what YouGov found in the new poll (with changes from the July Barometer poll in brackets):

  • Conservative: 29% (+5)
  • Labour: 25% (+3)
  • Liberal Democrats: 16% (no change)
  • Brexit Party: 14% (-4)
  • Plaid Cymru: 12% (-3)
  • Greens: 4% (+1)
  • Others: 1% (no change)

If we do get this General Election, Wales may be one of the areas where the Conservatives can look to make big gains... to win this majority in the Commons.

– Prof Roger Awan-Scully, Cardiff University

It appears Brexit is a big factor in how people will vote.

The poll found that 56% of Welsh voters consider it to be one of the most important election issues. 89% of people who say they will vote Conservative are in favour of leaving the European Union without a deal on 31 October.

Credit: PA Images
56%
of Welsh voters considered Brexit to be the most important election issue
89%
of those who say they will vote Tory are in favour of a no-deal Brexit

The poll also found 31% of voters were confident Boris Johnson will get a better Brexit deal than Theresa May achieved. Of those who said they would vote Conservative in the next election, 72% said they were confident. 79% of those who said they would vote Labour answered "not confident".

Professor Scully said, "Our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll is a fitting reflection of the uncertain political times in which we are living. The Conservatives will be greatly encouraged by their rise in support since our last poll. By contrast, despite a modest recovery since our last poll, Welsh Labour look to be on the defensive. Both for Westminster and the Assembly they currently seem on course to lose significant ground. But perhaps what the poll most reinforces is the extent of the current divides within a Wales, and a UK, in which the defining political issue is Brexit. With momentous developments on that issue possibly just days away, the electoral landscape could soon be witnessing further turmoil."

  • YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,032 Welsh voters between 10 and 14 October.
  • The full poll can be seen here.